MLB Player Props Thursday | Odds for Zac Gallen, More (August 17)
Rebecca Sasnett/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen.
In the nation's capital, the Red Sox and Nationals have split the first two games in their three-game series. The Red Sox are favored to take the finale with Chris Sale starting against Patrick Corbin. Justin Turner will look to provide some offense for the Red Sox.
The Mets and Cardinals are beginning a four-game series in St. Louis. Jose Quintana will get the ball for the Mets, which should be good news for Paul Goldschmidt.
Zac Gallen has held the Padres scoreless in two of his three starts this season. However, both of those starts were at home, including last Saturday. Will Gallen be able to replicate that success in San Diego?
MLB Player Props For Thursday, August 17
Boston Red Sox
Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
|Red Sox vs Nationals||Red Sox -190|
|First Pitch||4:05 p.m. ET|
In July, Justin Turner hit .337 with five home runs, 28 runs batted in and .986 OPS. This month, Justin Turner has missed some time battling a heel bruise. However, he still has a hit in eight of his last 10 games. In that span, he is hitting .282 with a double, three home runs, and six runs batted in.
Turner also has four multi-hit games in that span, which have helped him clear this line in five of those games. With Patrick Corbin starting for the Nationals, he is an excellent spot to clear this line once again. Turner is 16-for-42 (.381) with four doubles, two home runs. Corbin has allowed 23 doubles and 22 home runs, a .303 batting average and .845 OPS to right-handed hitters.
Turner's batting average is roughly the same -.282 against left-handed pitchers and .287 against right-handed pitchers- but his OPS (.915) is more than one hundred points higher against left-handers. Turner has 10 doubles and seven home runs in 117 at-bats against left-handers this season. One extra base hit would give him two total bases today. Likely batting second again may also give Turner a fifth plate appearance if necessary.
Pick: Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases via DraftKings
St. Louis Cardinals
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
|Mets vs Cardinals||Mets -124|
|First Pitch||7:15 p.m. ET|
This season, Paul Goldschmidt may not be having a MVP-caliber season like he did last year, but he has still been productive. Goldschmidt is hitting .278 with 19 home runs, 62 runs batted in and a .824 OPS this season. He has recorded a hit in nine of his last 11 games. In that span, he is hitting .311 with a home run and six runs batted in.
Only three of his home runs this season have come against left-handed pitchers, but he is hitting .296 against them. One left-hander that hits particularly well is Jose Quintana. Goldschmidt is 11-for-17 (.647) with three doubles, three homers and 11 runs batted in against Quintana in his career.
Quintana has been successful navigating trouble in his five starts but he has a below average Strikeout Rate and his 4.14 xERA is more than a run above his 3.03 ERA. Additionally, 27 of the 28 hits he has allowed this season have been to right-handed batters, who are hitting .303 against him. The splits and this matchup both heavily favor Goldschmidt.
Though over half of Goldschmidt's hits off Quintana have gone for extra bases, Goldschmidt could hit this line with two hits. He has three-multi games in his last four outings and I would not be surprised if he gets two hits in two of his first three at-bats against Quintana today.
Pick: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases via DraftKings
Zac Gallen Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-125)
|Diamondbacks vs Padres||Padres -111|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
With Spencer Strider's rough outing in Pittsburgh last week, Zac Gallen is once again the betting favorite to take home the NL Cy Young Award. He certainly looked like the NL's best pitcher in his last outing when he allowed just four hits in six shutout innings against the Padres last Saturday. Gallen has a 1.82 ERA in 12 home starts this season, but his ERA jumps to 4.72 on the road this season.
I faded Gallen on the road a few weeks ago in Atlanta but took his walks instead. He did not allow a walk in seven innings, but he did give up three earned runs. Gallen may issue a few walks today-likely to Juan Soto- but I am taking his earned runs today instead.
Way back in April, Gallen allowed five runs (four earned) in his second start against the Padres at Petco Park. Those were actually the only runs that he surrendered in April. More recently, he has allowed three earned runs in four of his last six starts since the All-Star break. Three of the four starts that Gallen went over this line came on the road.
Gallen has emerged as a workhorse for Arizona this season and he has gone six innings in 19 of his 25. That means he likely will go through the Padres lineup three times. The third trip tends to favor the batter with more exposure to the pitcher's arsenal in that game. However, having just faced Gallen, it may not take long for the Padres to score three runs off him today tonight.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 2.5 Earned Runs via DraftKings