MLB Same-Game Parlay for Friday: How to Bet Nationals vs. Phillies (September 9th)
AP Photo/Nick Wass. Pictured: Bryce Harper.
- The Phillies are heavy home favorites over the Nationals in what should be a high scoring matchup.
- Charlie DiSturco breaks down his same-game parlay for this matchup as he is fading both pitchers.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
Nationals vs Phillies Odds
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Name a better way to enter the weekend than with a same-game parlay…I’ll wait.
The game I’m targeting on Friday night is the National League East bout between the pesky Washington Nationals and the Philadelphia Phillies. It’s Patrick Corbin against Noah Syndergaard, two pitchers having seasons to forget in 2022.
As always, my same-game parlay follows a specific narrative of how I expect the game to play out. Expect offense galore in what should be a high-scoring and entertaining matchup.
I took a few longshots, especially on the Nationals side, but that’s the type of energy we’re putting out for this same-game parlay. Runs, runs and runs!
The Parlay (+5226):
- Over 8.5 (-120)
- Rhys Hoskins Over .5 TBs (-110)
- Alec Bohm Over 1.5 TBs (-115)
- Bryce Harper RBI (+110)
- Luke Voit RBI (+175)
- Victor Robles to Record a Run (+200)
Same-Game Parlay – Nationals vs Phillies
Over 8.5 (-120)
This is a game where there’ll be no shortage of offense.
Let’s start with Corbin. The southpaw ranks in the bottom one percent of MLB pitchers in xERA (6.34), xBA (.300) and xSLG (.519), and that’s factoring in his last 13 innings of two-run ball against the Mets and Reds.
Corbin’s Strikeout Rate has taken a steep hit in 2022 as he hasn’t had the same deceptiveness he had a few years back. This is a nightmare matchup for Corbin as the Phillies rank inside the top 10 in wRC+, Isolated Power and wOBA against left-handed pitching.
In two starts against the Phillies, Corbin has combined for 15 runs over FOUR innings. In one outing, he didn’t even make it out of the first.
As for Syndergaard, life post-Tommy John surgery has not treated the right-hander well. He’s gone from throwing fireballs and a hammer to being tee’d off on at the plate.
In 2022, Syndergaard is posting career-worsts in xBA, xSLG, Hard-Hit Rate, Barrel Rate and Ground Ball Rate. His Strikeout Rate is just 17.5 percent as his velocity has dipped nearly four miles per hour from when he was a New York Met.
His Phillies debut came against the Nationals where he was a bit fortunate, throwing five innings of four-run ball. But here’s the kicker: he gave up 11 hits.
The Nationals are playing at an even higher level than when Syndergaard first saw them, too. Over the last 14 days, Washington’s pesky rag-tag lineup is ranks top five in both wRC+ and wOBA.
Both offenses have a sense of familiarity against Corbin and Syndergaard, and I’d expect similar success here on Friday night. Both bullpens also rank in the bottom 11 in xFIP over the last month, so an early outing from either starter should still translate to runs late.
Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
You’ll see a few of these total bases prop in this same-game parlay. Let’s start with Alec Bohm, who has torched Corbin in his career.
In 14 at-bats against Corbin, the 24-year-old Bohm has five hits — two home runs — an an OPS of 1.223. He’s a lefty killer with drastic splits, hitting nearly .362 against southpaws as opposed to a .267 average against righties.
Bohm has been seeing the ball well over the last few weeks, having multi-hit performances in five of his last nine games.
I also love this prop because he hits right in front of Bryce Harper. Pitchers will attack the young third baseman instead of pitching around him, especially when one of MLB’s elite sluggers stands in the on-deck circle.
Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
We talked about Bohm’s success against Corbin, and Rhys Hoskins might be even better in that department. In 30 at-bats, Hoskins has 10 hits, seven of which have gone for extra bases.
Hoskins has more power than Bohm, and if I were to take a player to homer, it’d be the 29-year-old first baseman. But I’ll settle for his total bases prop here.
Similar to Bohm, Hoskins crushes left-handed pitching in general. He has a .305 average with a .998 OPS against southpaws, a number that drops to .235 and .744, respectively, against right-handed pitching.
In a game where I see offense galore, Bohm and Hoskins are my two favorites to get things going atop that Phillies lineup.
Bryce Harper to Record an RBI (+110)
I’ll keep this one brief. Bryce Harper is one of the best sluggers in the game, and despite this being a lefty-on-lefty matchup, Harper actually has 10 hits across 35 at-bats against Patrick Corbin.
He hits behind both Hoskins and Bohm, and I outlined why I love both to go over their total bases prop on Friday night. If they both hit the way I expect, Harper should get plenty of RBI opportunities where he may only need a sacrifice fly or single.
In a game where I expect a ton of runs, I’m backing Harper here to do his job as a cleanup hitter and drive in a Philly early in the game.
Luke Voit to Record an RBI (+175)
If there’s one player on the Nationals I trust the most, it’s Luke Voit in the middle of that lineup.
The power-hitting righty is 2-for-3 in his career against Syndergaard, and he’s a player who can change the game with one swing of the bat. Given how the Nationals offense has been over the last two weeks — top five in wOBA and wRC+ — I’d expect there to be plenty of RBI opportunities in the middle of that lineup.
Voit is a player I trust in this scenario, especially given Syndergaard’s declining velocity and low Strikeout Rate.
The 31-year-old is also swinging an extremely hot bat, entering Friday night 6-for-11 over his last three games with a pair of RBIs and a home run.
Victor Robles to Record a Run (+200)
I put this last because Victor Robles’ status is a question mark for Friday night. He was scratched Thursday because of a neck injury, and if he doesn’t go, I’d expect Cesar Hernandez to get the call in replace of him.
Whichever of the two get the nod, I would take his total bases prop here.
Let’s start with Robles. We talked about the Phillies’ success against Corbin, and Robles is 6-for-15 with three home runs and a double against Syndergaard in his career.
He also has the speed to swipe second against Syndergaard, who is one of the worst pitchers at holding base runners. Opponents are 56-for-59 against the big right-hander in stolen base attempts this season. Robles is 14-of-16 on the year.
All this to say, I can easily see Robles putting himself in scoring position and giving the Nationals a chance to bring him home multiple times throughout Friday night.
As for Cesar Hernandez, he’s also seen Syndergaard extremely well. The veteran is 13-for-32 (.406) in his career, though his hits haven’t gone for extra bases.
If Robles doesn’t start, I’d look toward Hernandez to score a run as he too can use his wheels to get into scoring position. In a game where I see a lot of runs, I like taking a dart throw on Robles (+200) or Hernandez (likely similarly priced) to round out the parlay.
This is the big piece to make this parlay jump. If you want to play a bit safe, I’d drop this leg from the parlay piece, but I’m letting it ride because why not!