MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Angels-Rangers, 2 Other Wednesday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Angels-Rangers, 2 Other Wednesday Games article feature image

Los Angeles Angels Kole Calhoun and Luis Rengifo. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

  • Sharps are betting three MLB games Wednesday, headlined by Angels-Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET).
  • Wiseguys are also getting down on Brewers-Reds (7:10 p.m. ET) and Giants-Padres (9:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys went 1-2 with their Tuesday plays, cashing the Indians-Royals over but losing the Brewers-Reds and Phillies-Braves overs.

Overall, it was a profitable night for contrarian bettors with underdogs, road teams and unders turning a nice profit.

⚾️ Tuesday Recap

Dogs/<50% bets: 8-4-2, +6.15u
Road teams: 7-5-2, +2.99u
Unders: 8-6, +1.75u

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 3, 2019

After analyzing Wednesday’s massive 16-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a trio of MLB games.

>> All odds as of 2:45 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Milwaukee Brewers (46-40) at Cincinnati Reds (39-44) 

7:10 p.m. ET | Jhoulys Chacin (3-8, 5.60 ERA) vs. Sonny Gray (4-5, 3.83 ERA) 

The total went over in the series opener Monday night and under last night. Tonight, sharps and squares (recreational bettors who bet for fun) appear to be in unison when it comes to the over/under.

This total opened at a high 10.5. Currently 63% of bets are taking the under, indicating moderately heavy support. Average Joes are pre-dis-positioned to betting overs, so this under betting usually creates a “contrarian over” opportunity for wiseguys. However, sharps are in agreement with the public on this one.

The under is receiving 90% of dollars, clear evidence of heavy smart money sweating the under, not just public support. This overload of sharp action forced oddsmakers to drop the total down from 10.5 to 10 (it has even briefly dipped to 9.5).

We’ve also tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the under, with sharps crushing the Under 10.5 twice and the Under 10 two more times. The second set of Under 10 moves are notable. Even though wiseguys lost out on the hook (the extra half run), they still hit the under. That means they still saw value in the Under 10 and the juice is still worth the squeeze.

An added bonus for under backers: Mike Estabrook is behind the plate. According to our Bet Labs database, the under has hit at a 57% clip (+28.22 units won) since 2005 with Estabrook calling balls and strikes.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 10.5 to 10)

Los Angeles Angels (43-43) at Texas Rangers (46-39) 

8:05 p.m. ET | Griffin Canning (3-4, 3.80 ERA) vs. Ariel Jurado (5-3, 3.90 ERA) 

The Angels, and the entire baseball community, are playing with heavy hearts following the tragic passing of 27-year-old pitcher Tyler Skaggs earlier this week. Los Angeles beat Texas 9-4 last night, winning the series opener in Skaggs’ honor.

Tonight, public bettors see the Rangers as a rare home dog (who happen to also have a better record than the Angels) and they can’t lay off. But sharps are fading the trendy dog and backing the Halos.

This AL West showdown opened with Los Angeles listed as -120 road favorite and Texas a +111 dog. Currently 61% of bets are grabbing the plus money with the Rangers, yet we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Angels (-120 to -127).

This is a classic example of sharp reverse line movement, with books adjusting the odds away from the popular side and toward the unpopular side because they took in big smart money from respected pro bettors on the Halos.

Los Angeles is only getting 39% of bets but 54% of dollars, another sign of smart money in their favor. The Angels also match the Bet Labs Unpopular Favorite system. So far this season, favorites getting less than 50% of bets have gone 111-75 (59.7%), winning +13.33 units with a 7.1% ROI.

Another cherry on top for Halos wiseguys: Marty Foster is a big road team umpire. Since 2005, home teams have lost -20.23 units with Foster behind the plate.

Sharp angle: Angels (moved from -120 to -127)

San Francisco Giants (38-47) at San Diego Padres (42-43)  

9:10 p.m. ET | Shaun Anderson (3-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.66 ERA) 

This NL West showdown is the epitome of the Gambler’s Fallacy.

The Gambler’s Fallacy states that if something happens a lot recently, it’s bound to switch and happen less often in the future.

For example, say you’re at the roulette table and you see black cash ten times in a row. Your first instinct would be to bet bet red on the next spin. After all, red is due and “has to hit” one of these times.

However, this idea is wrong (and a losing strategy) because each spin of the roulette wheel is independent of previous spins. The same logic can be applied to sports. Just because a bad team is on a winning streak doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to lose their next game.

Take the Giants tonight. They’ve crushed the Padres in the first two games of the series (13-2 and 10-4). Gambler’s Fallacy says the Giants stink, the Padres are a better team and San Diego has to win tonight. But sharps aren’t falling into the trap.

The game opened with the Padres listed as -145 home favorites. Currently 65% of bets are backing San Diego, yet we’ve seen the Pads fall from -145 down to -129. This a classic example of sharp reverse line movement on the Giants, as they’re only receiving 35% of bets but have seen their payout decrease and the line move in their favor (+134 to +119).

We’ve tracked a pair of steam moves on SF at +131 and +125 and we haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Fathers.

Sharp angle: Giants (moved from +134 to +119)

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