MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Astros-Yankees, Marlins-Cardinals Thursday Night
David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alex Bregman
- Wiseguys are betting a pair of games Thursday night, headlined by Astros-Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET).
- They're also getting down on Marlins-Cardinals (7:15 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting both games.
Wiseguys went 1-2 with their Wednesday plays, cashing the Cubs “fade-the-trendy-dog” play, but losing the Twins moneyline and Marlins-Cardinals over. With a shorter slate of getaway day games on tap, sharps will look to pick their spots and get back to Green Dot City.
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Houston Astros (48-27) at New York Yankees (46-27)
7:05 p.m. ET | Framber Valdez (3-2, 2.77 ERA) vs. Chad Green (1-2, 7.55 ERA)
There are only four teams in the big leagues with a .600 or better win percentage. And two of them square off tonight at Yankee Stadium.
Normally, the public loves betting home teams and favorites. But not in this game. They take one look at the line and say, “How can you possibly pass up the mighty Astros at plus-money?”
But once again, wiseguys are capitalizing on public bias and grabbing the Yankees in a rare contrarian spot at home.
This game opened with New York listed as a -135 favorite and Houston a +125 dog. Currently 63% of bets are backing the Astros, yet the line has barely budged. This indicates a sharp line freeze, with books refusing to drop the price more than a cent or two in fear of giving wiseguys a better number on New York.
The Bombers are receiving only 37% of bets but 60% of dollars, further evidence of big smart money wagers in their favor. We’ve also tracked three Bet Signals on the Yankees, with sharps hitting NYY twice at -127 and again at -136.
This spot has been a huge moneymaker for sharps this season. According to our Bet Labs database, unpopular favorites (receiving less than 50% of bets), have gone 101-63 (61.6%) this year, winning 18.09 units for an 11% return on investment (ROI).
Sharp angle: Yankees (stayed at -135)
Miami Marlins (26-46) @ St. Louis Cardinals (38-35)
7:15 p.m. ET | Zac Gallen (no record) vs. Adam Wainwright (5-6, 4.33 ERA)
Bats have gone quiet in St. Louis recently, as the under has cashed without a sweat in the first three games of this series. Casual bettors say “they have to start hitting eventually” and the over is due. But wiseguys are eyeing another pitchers duel.
This total opened at 8.5. Currently 60% of bets are taking the over, yet we’ve seen the total fall to 8. Why would the oddsmakers drop the number to give over bettors an easier shot at covering?
Because they got hit by big smart money on the under (40% of bets but 76% of dollars).
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked a pair of reverse line moves on the under (with no conflicting over plays). As soon as the line opened, Goodfellas crushed the under at 8.5. Then they came back at hit it again at 8. Despite the line getting worse, they still saw value. This speaks volumes about their confidence in a low-scoring game.
The under fits the profitable “Bet vs. Public on an Under Streak” Bet Labs system. When the under is receiving less than 50% of bets, is between 8 and 10 and the home team has gone under in the last 2-4 games, the under has won 199.91 units since 2005.
Another reason sharps love this under? Miami’s Zac Gallen. The starting pitcher is making his MLB debut and has been dominant in the minors (9-1, 1.77 ERA at Triple-A New Orleans). It doesn’t hurt that there’s a revenge factor in play also, as Gallen was drafted by St. Louis and dealt to the Fish in the Marcell Ozuna trade.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8.5 to 8)