MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Dodgers-Rockies, 2 Other Monday Games
Colorado Rockies right fielder Charlie Blackmon (19). Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on 3 MLB games tonight, headlined by Dodgers-Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Diamondbacks-Marlins (7:10 p.m. ET) and Blue Jays-Royals (8:15 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys are always conscious of the gambling calendar, specifically what sports are available to bet on each day and how many games are listed on the board.
For example, tonight might seem like a quiet Monday with only seven games from which to choose. But wiseguys love this small slate because they know the public has only a handful of games to get down on. And of course, they’ll load up on favorites, home teams and overs. As a result, each game will attract heavier-than-usual action, producing high ticket counts and, therefore, increased contrarian value.
>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Arizona Diamondbacks (53-53) vs. Miami Marlins (40-63)
7:!0 p.m. ET | Merrill Kelly (7-10, 4.22 ERA) vs. Caleb Smith (6-4, 3.10 ERA)
The Marlins sit 23 games below .500 and, as a result, the public wants nothing to do with them. Simply put, Miami is an auto-fade for Average Joes. However, veteran wiseguys aren’t afraid to buy low on bad teams like Miami because they know how underpriced and undervalued they are.
The numbers don’t lie. Despite their awful record, the Fish are only -1.75 units on the season. This means a $100 bettor taking Miami every game is only down $175. Much better than you’d expect, right? As a point of reference, the 59-48 Red Sox are down 9.08 units. In other words, the Marlins aren’t nearly as bad as their record appears, thanks in large part to the fact that they’re almost always a contrarian dog with a juicy, plus-money payout.
Tonight, sharps see sneaky great value on Miami in a surprise home upset spot with its ace on the mound.
Arizona opened as a short -111 road favorite and Miami a +103 dog. Moneyline bets are split right down the middle, but we’ve seen this line move bigly toward Miami, turning the Fish from underdogs to favorites (+103 to -109). In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all, aside from a cent or two, if the tickets are an even 50-50.
The Fish are also in a prime “Fade the Trendy Dog” spot. According to our Bet Labs software, unpopular favorites (receiving less than 50% of bets) have gone 136-98 (58.1%), winning 11.02 units so far this season.
An added bonus: Chad Fairchild is behind the plate tonight. Since 2005, home teams have won 57% of their games and profited 11.27 units with Fairchild calling balls and strikes. It also doesn’t hurt that Miami is playing well as of late, going 4-1 in its last 5 games.
Sharp angle: Marlins (moved from +103 to -109)
Toronto Blue Jays (40-67) at Kansas City Royals (40-67)
8:15 p.m. ET | Thomas Pannone (2-4, 6.39 ERA) vs. Brad Keller (7-9, 3.95 ERA)
One look at the Toronto starting pitcher’s ERA and that’s all public bettors need to know. 6.39?! Hammer the over to the moon!
But wiseguys aren’t falling victim to the conventional wisdom trap. They’re buying low on a contrarian under with a streaking Brad Keller on the mound (3-0, 1.33 ERA in July).
This over/under opened at a high 10. Currently 60% of bets are taking the over yet we’ve seen this total fall from 10 to 9.5. This sharp reverse line movememnt was caused by heavy dime wagers ($1000) from pro bettors crushing the under (40% of bets but 75% of dollars).
Goodfellas got down hard on the under 10, triggering market-wide steam that helped drop the total down to 9.5.
Two additional edges to the under: the wind is blowing in at 4-9 mph throughout the game, hopefully turning first-row homers into warning-track outs, and Bill Miller is the home plate umpire. Since 2005, the under has won 27.26 units with Miller calling balls and strikes.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 10 to 9.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers (69-38) at Colorado Rockies (49-57)
8:40 p.m. ET | Kenta Maeda (7-7, 3.81 ERA) vs. Jon Gray (9-7, 4.05 ERA)
Recreational bettors love backing favorites and good teams with impressive records. After all, if they’re going to put their hard-earned cash down on a game, they want to back a proven winner. The Dodgers are the perfect example. They’re the best team in baseball and a public darling every time they take the field, regardless of the price or the opponent.
However, betting on elite teams like Los Angeles isn’t the cash cow the public thinks it is. Sure, the Dodgers have a league-best 69-38 (.645) record. But because they’re almost always a favorite laying a big minus number, LA has profited only 4.75 units this season. In comparison, the 54-52 Giants have profited 14.33 units. This speaks to public perception, bias and the books shading lines toward popular teams, forcing the public to take overpriced numbers. The name of the game is and always has been about “value.”
Tonight, it’s business as usual with the Dodgers receiving 80% of bets at Colorado. However, despite this overwhelming support, we’ve seen Los Angeles fall from -150 to -127. Why would the Dodgers’ price get cheaper if they’re getting such massive support? Because sharps got down hard on Colorado, forcing bookmakers to move the line in their favor (+138 to +117).
The Rockies are a divisional dog at home with a high total, a profitable spot since 2005. Colorado is also super contrarian in the most heavily bet game of the night, making them the top “Fade the Public” play.
The Rockies are also receiving more money (41%) than bets (21%), further evidence of pro bettors backing them, and we’ve tracked a trio of reverse line moves in their favor with sharps crushing Colorado at +125, +120 and again at +120. We haven’t seen any conflicting plays on Los Angeles, signaling that its support is almost purely public.
Colorado also fits several profitable Bet Labs historical systems.
Teams receiving 30% or less bets with at least 10 cents of RLM in heavily-bet games (receiving the daily average number of bets or more) have profited +128.95 units since 2005.
Home dogs receiving less than 35% of bets with at least 20 cents or RLM and high totals (8.5 or higher) have won at a 54% clip, resulting in 58.77 units won and a 22.3% ROI.
Sharp angle: Rockies (moved from +138 to +117)