MLB Sharp Report: Cardinals-Mets, Cubs-Dodgers Lead Saturday’s Pro Plays
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Yu Darvish
- Sharp action has hit Saturday's MLB slate on three games in particular.
- Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages help reveal how pros are playing Cardinals-Mets and two other matchups.
A Saturday in the midst of the U.S. Open might take some eyes off a 15-game baseball slate, but it certainly won’t affect how sharps attack the board.
They’ve hit three games in particular today, ranging from 4:05 p.m. to 9:10 p.m. ET, including Cardinals vs. Mets and Cubs vs. Dodgers. Let’s take a look.
>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets
4:05 p.m. ET | Michael Wacha vs. Noah Syndergaard
A Thor vs. Michael Wacha matchup is almost always going to draw the same public activity assuming a somewhat reasonable Mets price, which is what bettors have today. The Mets opened at -150 and have attracted 65% of bettors since opening.
Despite the nearly two-thirds of tickets landing on the home team, however, that line is now all the way down to around -134 thanks to, you guessed it, sharp action on the Cardinals.
The Cards’ 35% backing has generated 57% of actual money being wagered on the matchup, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are taking a shot against Thor.
Sports Insights Bet Signals have also triggered two confirmed instances of sharp action causing line moves on the Cardinals at +135 and +127.
Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from +140 to +124)
Texas Rangers @ Cincinnati Reds
7:10 p.m. ET | Mike Minor vs. Tanner Roark
Perhaps it’s their lack of superstar names, but Mike Minor and Tanner Roark aren’t getting much respect from the betting public tonight despite their solid starts to the season — at least that’s what’s being told by the over/under percentages.
Despite a combined ERA of 6.26 this season, they’ve still drawn 60% of bettors to the over on a total that opened at 9.
Once again, though, the line has moved away from the popular side, in this case falling to 8.5 despite the over action. And once again, it’s thanks in large part to bigger, sharper bettors.
The 60% of bets on the over have accounted for just 28% of real dollars being bet, and SI Bet Signals have triggered another two moves on the under today.
There was one conflicting over signal in this case, but since it came yesterday morning, it’s unlikely that limits were as high at the time, and probably shouldn’t be weighted quite the same as today’s.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 8.5)
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers
9:05 p.m. ET | Yu Darvish vs. Walker Buehler
In this case there’s not as much of a lack-of-big-name excuse, but bettors are still taking the over despite the Darvish-Buehler pitching matchup. I guess that’s what happens when two teams ranking fifth and sixth in the majors in home runs face off.
Seventy-seven percent of bets on this total have hit the over, which opened at 8. Initially, a few books nudged the number up to 8.5, but the sharp action on the under was enough to bring it right back where it started.
Another two Bet Signals have hit the under (one at 8.5, one at 8), and the 23% of bettors on the under have again accounted for a much higher percentage of actual money (65%).
This game still has plenty of time to take shape in the betting market, so if professional money continues to play the under, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a 7.5 pop up.
Sharp angle: Under (stayed at 8)