MLB Sharp Report: Pros Playing Braves-Cardinals, 2 Other Games

It's a long holiday weekend, but not for baseball players. And if the players are playing, that means the bettors are betting, too.

As always, Sunday features tons of day-game action and plenty of opportunities to find value. Tomorrow will be a rare Monday that also has plenty of day games, so don't go too crazy tonight and sleep in late on your day off from work.

Detroit Tigers at New York Mets

1:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Tigers (moved from +165 to +154)

In the first two games of their series against the Mets, the Tigers have closed at +246 and +160. They cashed bigly against Noah Syndergaard in Game 1 and lost by one run yesterday. With things on more of a level playing field than they appear, sharps are getting down on the Tigers on Sunday's series-deciding game.

The Tigers are featuring Spencer Turnbull, too, which certainly helps their cause. Turnbull has posted a sub-3.0 ERA this season after an ugly 2018 debut in which he had an ERA over 6.0 in 16.1 innings of work.

The Tigers bats will get to face Zack Wheeler, who has struggled a bit this season after a terrific 2018. Wheeler has an ERA of nearly 5.0, but with a K/9 over 10 and fairly unlucky BABIP, advanced metrics suggest he should positively regress going forward.

A steam move on the Tigers struck the market shortly before 9 a.m. ET, moving their line down about 10 cents from +165.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

2:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Red Sox (moved from+170 to +153)

The Sox have come close, but have come up a run short on Friday and Saturday in Houston. The 'Stros are angry that the Red Sox took their title last season!

Houston has Justin Verlander going today, but the pros are taking the Red Sox in a rare opportunity to get them at a big plus-money price.

Boston and Eduardo Rodriguez are getting just 29% of bets, but the line has moved nearly 20 cents in their favor.

We've tracked two bet signals on the Sox and none on the Astros, while Boston is also getting 10% more money than bets.

If the Sox close above +150, it would be the first time they've done so this season. Over the past two years, there have been 13 instances of them closing at +150 or higher, and they've fared quite well, posting an 8-5 record for +8.0 units.

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from -135 to -151)

On Sunday Night Baseball, the Cards will host the Braves and hope to get back on the right track. At 26-25, the Cardinals are not having the season they had hoped for, and quite frankly, tonight's starter Jack Flaherty is partially to blame.

After a 2018 season in which he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine and posted an ERA in the low-3s, Flaherty's K/9 is down by one and his ERA is nearly up a full run in 2019. He's also allowed a lot of dingers, which was not much of an issue for him last year.

Meanwhile, Julio Teheran is once again allowing fewer runs than the advanced metrics suggest he should. He's made a habit of this, as he's posted an ERA lower than his FIP in every season since 2013. Though he's walking 4.26 men per nine innings this year, he's manged an ERA of 3.67 thanks to a low BABIP and high left-on-base percentage. At this point, it may just be a skill of his rather than luck.

Regardless, the pros know deep down that Flaherty is the more talented arm, and they're backing him despite the lack of public support. The Braves are a trendy dog with 57% of the bets, but the line has moved a good chunk towards Flaherty and the Cardinals. After some initial back and forth action, with the line moving a couple of points here and there towards both teams, a steam move hit the Cardinals at around 8 a.m. this morning to push their line over -150.