Nationals vs Mets Odds, Prediction | Tuesday MLB Betting Preview

Nationals vs Mets Odds, Prediction | Tuesday MLB Betting Preview article feature image
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Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Washington’s James Wood.

Nationals vs Mets Odds

Tuesday, July 9
7:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Nationals Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
+115
8.5
-105o / -115u
+1.5
-178
Mets Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-135
8.5
-105o / -115u
-1.5
+150
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Mets and Washington Nationals, two NL East rivals, are set for the first meeting of their series on Tuesday night at Citi Field. These two clubs are very familiar with one another, as they completed a four-game set at Nationals Park just last week.

As the series shifts to Queens, the Mets will be looking for their bats to provide some home cooking against Jake Irvin, who threw eight innings of one-hit ball in his last start against them.

Nationals vs Mets odds for Tuesday have the Mets as -135 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o / -115u).

Will the weather ignite these two lineups? Find out as I make my Nationals vs Mets prediction in my MLB betting preview for this NL East clash on Tuesday, July 9.


Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals' lineup is far from one that will strike fear into an opposing pitcher. However, the call-up of stud rookie James Wood has jolted the lineup, as they rank 19th in wRC+ against lefties over their past 15 games.

That's a significant improvement on their season-long rank of 28th, and they get an opportunity to continue improving against a lefty tonight in Jose Quintana. Quintana is a crafty veteran at age 35, but his regression this season is apparent despite turning back the clock in a handful of starts.

Quintana is also due for more significant regression. His xERA of 5.34 sits more than a full run higher than his actual ERA of 4.32.

While some of the hard contact can be overlooked — Quintana is a sinkerballer and pitches to contact — the Nationals are going to put the ball in play a ton. Given how hard Quintana has been hit this season, some of the grounders should find their way through.

Lastly, the biggest issue is the arms behind Quintana. The Mets' bullpen has suffered several losses to injury and ranks 18th in bullpen ERA. Don't expect the fire to be put out once the Nats' bats get rolling.

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New York Mets

If the Mets didn't have a good book on Irvin last week, they do now after he dominated them. That should play in their favor, as they've seen all of Irvin's arsenal and his sequencing multiple times through the order.

It also helps that Irvin is overdue for regression. His xERA of 3.60 is far higher than his actual ERA of 2.80. His xFIP also comes in around that number at 3.62.

So, the Mets have the edge by getting a quick second look at Irvin. Despite cooling down in July, this lineup still ranks 10th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Just like the Nats, the bulk of the Mets' scoring may even come when Irvin leaves the game. We saw New York punish Washington's bullpen in their last series, and even a subdued effort from that pen likely means runs will be put on the board.


Nationals vs Mets

Betting Pick & Prediction

This total opened at 8 with slight juice to the over and was quickly bet up to 8.5. It's easy to see why, as both sides are very questionable on the mound entering this matchup.

The weather will provide a boost as well, with the wind blowing out at 13 mph.

All signs point to this matchup being a high-scoring affair, and I agree with the current number. Take the over.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-103 at BetRivers · Play to -110)

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