The Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets on August 10, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Braves are favored by -146 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +127 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Braves Prediction
- Mets vs Braves Pick: Mets Over 3.5
My Mets vs Braves best bet is on New York Team Score. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Braves Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -169 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +127 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -146 |
- Mets vs Braves moneyline: Mets +127, Braves -146
- Mets vs Braves over/under: 8.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Mets vs Braves spread: Braves -1.5 (+140 ), Mets +1.5 (-169)
Mets vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| RHP Christian Scott (NYM) | Stat | RHP Bryce Elder (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 3.15 / 3.78 | ERA / xERA | 3.69 / 3.91 |
| 3.37 / 3.74 | FIP / xFIP | 4.44 / 4.17 |
| 18.8% | K-BB% | 11.7% |
| 32.4% | GB% | 42.8% |
| .302 | BABIP | .251 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 100 | Location+ | 105 |
Mets vs Braves MLB Betting Preview, Analysis
In my starting pitcher projections, I rank Christian Scott as a top-40 arm in baseball, whereas Bryce Elder lands way down at No. 152. That’s nearly a full run of separation in projected FIP. While public market projections tend to pull these two closer together, the underlying indicators show a widening chasm between their respective form.
Christian Scott has been hyper-efficient since returning to the Mets' rotation, pairing with Nolan McLean to form a formidable top-of-the-rotation core. Scott is sustaining a K-BB% near 24%. Meanwhile, Elder has fallen below league average, sitting around 8% in his recent sample with a dipping velocity and a ball rate surging past 40% in two of his last three starts.
Elder’s recent game logs look decent on the surface — surrendering just two, one, and one run over his last three starts — but his strikeouts and walks are essentially even. He's simply not being efficient with his pitch mix and is bound to get hit hard sooner or later.
While Atlanta holds the edge in both bullpen depth and overall lineup strength — which leads me to pass on the full-game moneyline — the Mets offense is quietly hitting its stride. Marcus Semien has woken up, Francisco Alvarez is on a tear, and even Jorge Polanco is finally making noise at the plate after a brutal start.
I make the Mets a First Five (F5) favorite, but the cleanest way to attack this matchup is backing New York's lineup against a regression-candidate in Elder.
Pick: Mets Over 3.5
