The Kansas City Royals host the New York Mets on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets enter this series as -131 moneyline favorites to snag the series opener in Kansas City.
Find my Mets vs Royals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Mets vs Royals Prediction, Pick
- Mets vs Royals pick: Royals ML +125 (Play to -110)
My Mets vs Royals best bet is on the Royals moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Royals Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 9.5 -105o / -116u | -131 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -149 | 9.5 -105o / -116u | +108 |
Mets vs Royals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael Wacha (KC) | Stat | RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-9 | W-L | 7-3 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 3.83/4.02 | ERA /xERA | 1.47/3.14 |
| 3.92/4.46 | FIP / xFIP | 3.19/4.06 |
| 1.29 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 11.4% | K-BB% | 13.3% |
| 38.6% | GB% | 46.3% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 102 | Location+ | 96 |
Sean Paul’s Mets vs Royals Preview
Mets Betting Preview: Senga Returns
Welcome back, Kodai Senga! Baseball is better when Senga is on the bump, as he posted a dazzling 1.47 ERA in 73 innings.
However, Senga was able to avoid regression before being sent to the IL. Will the regression finally catch up? He has a 3.14 xERA and 3.19 FIP, so things will likely get a bit worse.
It's tough to know what Senga is. He's an All-Star-level pitcher, but he's only appeared in 14 games in the last year and a half. In Senga's lone full year in 2023, he struck out 10.93 batters per nine, while walking 4.17. In his 13 outings in 2025, Senga has a 8.55 K/9 and 3.79 BB/9.
I'd like his attack more if he brought the strikeouts closer to double-digits again. That would make the high walk total more palatable.
And not for nothing — the Mets just played two games before traveling to Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Royals got to sit at home and relax. The rest factor certainly bodes favorably for the Royals.
The Mets' offense still isn't dominating the way it should, considering they have three elite hitters atop their lineup. Since June 15, they rank 17th with a 99 wRC+.
The bottom of the lineup isn't doing enough to bring up Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso with runners on base. The damage can be minimal if those four are coming up with one or two outs every time.
Nimmo, Soto and Alonso each have a wRC+ better than 140 since June 15, while Lindor has a 78 wRC+. Things could shift once Lindor starts hitting, but he's really, really struggled.
Behind Senga, who probably won't have a full workload in his first outing back, is a pretty wounded bullpen. Ryne Stanek gave up Game 1 of the doubleheader yesterday, even though he needed just one clean inning to get Edwin Diaz the ball.
The bridge to Diaz has been bumpy, whether it be Stanek, Reed Garrett or various other options.
Royals Betting Preview: Wacha Looks to Rebound
Following a rough five-start stretch, Michael Wacha will look to right the ship against the Mets. In his last outing, Wacha surrendered four runs with four hits and walks in four innings against the Diamondbacks.
The shaky stretch brought Wacha's ERA to 3.83, which is closer to his 4.02 xERA and 3.92 FIP. The regression already haunted Wacha, and now it's time for him to get on track.
Wacha excels at generating soft-contact, ranking in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity and 91st percentile in hard-hit rate. He's also a fly-ball heavy pitcher, which explains why he's a much better pitcher at home, posting a 2.81 home ERA compared to 4.89 in road games.
Kaufmann Stadium, just like most stadiums in the AL Central are pitchers parks, which allows some of the fly balls to die at the track.
The Royals' offense is easily one of the worst in the MLB. While an 88 wRC+ since June 15 is nothing to be excited about, it's an improvement over their 84 wRC+ through 94 games, which ranks 27th, in company with the Pirates, Rockies and White Sox.
The biggest difference of late is Salvador Perez finally hitting the ball. Perez has provided the Royals' offense with a jolt of life, as he's posted a 150 wRC+ with seven homers in his last 22 games.
As long as someone can be the robin to Bobby Witt Jr.'s batman, then I have more faith in Kansas City's offense. Perez and Witt are two of five Royals batters with a wRC+ better than 100 in their last 23 games.
Mets vs Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis
I love snagging plus money with the Royals at home. Senga not having a full workload and the Mets' pitcher already being due for regression are two huge pluses.
Also, Wacha is just so good at home, and I can't see the Mets' shaky offense putting an end to his home dominance.
Lastly, the Royals have a pretty big bullpen advantage, strictly based on them having a reliable eighth-inning man in Lucas Erceg, who can get closer Carlos Estevez the ball.
Pick: Royals ML +125 (Play to -110)
Moneyline
I'm going with the Royals here on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line, as I don't project there to be any value on this.
Over/Under
I also don't have a play on the total.
