The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on June 21, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Phillies are favored by -193 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +158 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Mets vs Phillies Pick: Mets Over 3.5 Runs (+105)
My Mets vs Phillies best bet is Mets Over 3.5 Runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -136 | 8 -115o / -104u | +158 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 8 -115o / -104u | -193 |
- Mets vs Phillies moneyline: Mets +158, Phillies -193
- Mets vs Phillies over/under: 8 (-115/ -104)
- Mets vs Phillies spread: Mets +1.5 (-136), Phillies -1.5 (+113)
Mets vs Phillies Polymarket MLB Odds
Mets vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | W-L | 6-1 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 5.91 / 4.81 | ERA / xERA | 2.01 / 3.04 |
| 3.76 / 4.10 | FIP / xFIP | 3.39 / 3.27 |
| 10.0 | K-BB% | 19.9 |
| 51.5 | GB% | 45.9 |
| .346 | BABIP | .207 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 99 | Location+ | 108 |
Mets vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets (34-42) are looking to take the rubber match of this three-game series against the division rival Phillies. New York is coming off a 15-3 loss, as Freddy Peralta was shelled for 10 runs. That means they may need left-hander David Peterson to go longer than usual here, to ease the pressure on a taxed bullpen.
Peterson has struggled lately, allowing a combined nine earned runs in his last two outings, spanning 6.2 innings. This includes six earned runs in only 3.2 innings vs. the Cardinals on June 10th.
Needless to say, the Mets will be at a disadvantage on the mound tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies (41-35) continue to roll. They've now gone 32-16 since Don Mattingly took over as manager. They're in a good spot to take two of three from the Mets, especially with Zack Wheeler on the mound.
The veteran right-hander has been fantastic since returning from injury, putting up a 2.01 ERA in 62.2 innings. However, the underlying metrics suggest that regression is coming soon, which is bad news against an improving Mets lineup.
Don't be surprised if the Mets put up some runs on Wheeler.
Mets vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
Zack Wheeler has been great, but his 3.38 SIERA is much higher than his 2.01 ERA, so we're likely to see some regression soon. Wheeler's strikeout rate has gone from 33.3% to 26.3%, his Stuff+ has fallen from 111 to 106, and his .207 BABIP is a career-low, despite a 36.3% hard-hit rate, which is the second-highest of his career.
Meanwhile, the Mets' offense has shown improvement of late. In the last 14 days, they have a 113 wRC+, which ranks 13th in MLB. If we dig further under the hood, we see that they're generating a lot of hard contact during that stretch, including a .327 xwOBA, which ranks 6th in MLB.
I like that we're getting plus money on a low bar of 3.5 runs, especially with 81-degree temperatures at a hitter-friendly environment like Citizens Bank Park, per Action App. With that in mind, we'll ride with the Mets to go Over 3.5 runs in this spot.
Pick: Mets Over 3.5 Runs
