The Miami Marlins host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 11, 2026. First pitch from LoanDepot Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Pirates are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Marlins Prediction
- Pirates vs Marlins Pick: Marlins ML (+104 | Play to -135)
My Pirates vs Marlins best bet is on Miami to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Marlins Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7 -110o / -110u | -112 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 7 -110o / -110u | +104 |
- Pirates vs Marlins moneyline: Pirates -112, Marlins +104
- Pirates vs Marlins over/under: 7 (-110o / -110u)
- Pirates vs Marlins spread: Pirates -1.5 (+155), Marlins +1.5 (-188)
Pirates vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| Paul Skenes (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Eury Perez (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-10 | W-L | 5-9 |
| 3.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 3.96 / 3.00 | ERA / xERA | 3.61 / 3.78 |
| 2.91 / 3.14 | FIP / xFIP | 3.79 / 3.95 |
| 23.7 | K-BB% | 17.7 |
| 39.7 | GB% | 37.6 |
| .307 | BABIP | .262 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 116 |
| 108 | Location+ | 93 |
Pirates vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Even like three months ago, "Skenes Day" was something to get excited for. Now, Pirates fans are hoping the reigning CY Young winner can regain his form after some immense struggles since mid-May.
Paul Skenes now owns a 3.96 ERA, two runs over his 1.96 ERA from last year. His underlying numbers look better than his base ERA, as his xERA is 3.00 and his FIP is 2.91.
Has Skenes been unlucky? Sure, the numbers indicate that. But I'm more concerned about the dip in Skenes' velocity. He regularly sat in the 98-100 range in the past, and during this run, his velocity is in the 95-97 range. Not only is his raw stuff down, but he's also walking 3.21 batters per nine in his last 15 outings.
It might just be a lost season for Skenes' standards. He has a 6.58 ERA over his last seven starts, and his issues might take an off-season of recalibration to resolve. We just have to adjust how we view Skenes and bet on/against him accordingly.
The Pirates offense continues to operate at a high level. They rank 13th in MLB with a 100 wRC+ since July 10th. Shockingly, they maintain an above-average wRC+, despite ranking 16th in walk rate, 26th in strikeout rate, and 18th in homers.
Six players on Pittsburgh's roster have a wRC+ better than 100 in that time. Nick Gonzalez and Esmerlyn Valdez each have a 132 wRC+, but Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn need to continue mashing righty pitching like they usually do.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Marlins are still in the thick of the race for the final wild card spot and can bury the Pirates, who are already 5 1/2 games back of the last spot.
Eury Perez will take the ball for Miami after one of his worst starts in a few months. He gave up four runs to the Braves, which is the first time in nine outings he gave up more than two runs in a start.
Entering this outing, Perez owns a 3.61 ERA with a 3.77 xERA and 3.79 FIP. I'll call Perez the "reverse Skenes". In the exact span that Skenes has fallen off, Perez has ascended, posting a 2.04 ERA in his last 10 starts.
You can point to two numbers that point to Perez's improvement. He cut his BB/9 from 3.45 for the year to 2.20 in his last 10, while cutting his HR/9 from 1.07 to 0.45. Maintaining an HR/9 below 0.50 is impossible, but he's finally showing off the dominance that earned him top-10 prospect status.
The Marlins continue to be strong offensively, ranking 10th with a 105 wRC+ since July 10th. They traded Liam Hicks at the deadline, but no other key offensive cogs went elsewhere.
Miami ranks 12th in three key categories in that span: walk rate (9%), strikeout rate (21.2%), and homers (42). That attack could prove beneficial against Skenes and his skyrocketing walk rate.
If you want a reason to feel optimistic about the Marlins offense, they're a top-10 unit with Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards having a wRC+ below 100. It helps to get 8+ homers from Kyle Stowers, Heirberto Hernandez, and Griffin Conine, though.
I expect some leveling out in the power department in the latter stages of the year and the more contact-oriented approach to return.
Pirates vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
How is Skenes a favorite on the road against a better team than the Pirates? I don't get it. His price still feels inflated based on the hope that he magically morphs into his 2025 form.
While I believe in him long-term, his velocity has disappeared for two months, and the lackluster results continue.
I have to back Perez and Miami up to -135 here.
Pick: Marlins ML (+104, FanDuel | Play to -135)
