The New York Yankees (66-52) host the Seattle Mariners (56-63) on August 11, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -126 on the moneyline. The Mariners are +116 on the moneyline. The total is set at 8 runs (-110 / -110).
Find my MLB picks and Mariners vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mariners vs Yankees Predictions, Pick
- Mariners vs Yankees Pick: Yankees ML
My Mariners vs Yankees best bet is a three-leg parlay with the main pick on New York as outright winner. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Yankees Odds, Spread, Line
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 8 -110o / -110u | +116 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8 -110o / -110u | -126 |
- Mariners vs Yankees moneyline: Mariners +119, Yankees -127
- Mariners vs Yankees over/under: 8 (-109 / -110)
- Mariners vs Yankees spread: Mariners +1.5 (-188), Yankees -1.5 (+154)
Mariners vs Yankees Pitchers
| RHP Bryan Woo (SEA) | Stat | LHP Ryan Weathers (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-8 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 3.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 4.31 / 3.63 | ERA / xERA | 3.79 / 4.37 |
| 3.20 / 3.68 | FIP / xFIP | 3.65 / 3.18 |
| 19.1% | K-BB% | 19.5% |
| 37.6% | GB% | 47.3% |
| .291 | BABIP | .306 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 108 | Location+ | 109 |
Mariners vs Yankees Expert MLB Pick Today
Mariners Preview
Bryan Woo is two different pitchers depending on where he's at.
At home this year: 1.96 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 28.5% K%, 4.5% BB%
On road this year: 6.71 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 20.6% K%, 5.7% BB%
Those are some wild home/road splits. And we see this sort of thing (not to this extent) a lot with the Mariners pitchers. There's something about that ballpark in Seattle that gives them a big advantage.
In his last two road starts, Woo has given up ten earned runs (five in each) to the Rangers and Dodgers. Now he goes into New York to face a banged-up Yankees lineup which is third-lowest in run scoring since July 1st.
Fewest Runs Scored Since July
So it's a good matchup for Woo, but I'm more worried about the road struggles he's had. He's given up at least three earned runs in his last seven road starts.
Yankees Preview
On the Yankees side, it's Ryan Weathers taking on the other low-scoring offense in this game. Weathers has recently made a change to his pitch mix to try to deal with a home run issue he had going on. Up until July 5th, he threw his four-seam fastball 28% of the time. Over these last five starts, it's down to 10%. He's throwing more changeups, sweepers, and sinkers than before.
What that has turned into is elite home run suppression. Before July 4th, he had given up 1.56 HR/9. Since then, it's 0.28. Just one homer given up in his last six starts.
The Mariners are 26th in baseball with 61 homers hit since June 1st. The summer weather hasn't helped them, Cal Raleigh has not gotten it going; they just don't have much behind Julio Rodriguez at this point.
How To Make Mariners vs Yankees Picks, Best Bet
So we like the Yankees to see and hit Woo well here. The Yankees have some left-handed power hitters who love hitting at home, and Woo gives up a lot of fly balls.
And I also really like what we're seeing with Weathers and his home run suppression. The Mariners lineup is built on hitting the long ball, that hasn't happened much this year, and Weathers has a pitch mix that keeps the ball on the ground now.
Parlay Picks: Bryan Woo Over 2.5 ER (-113), Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 ER (-166), Yankees Moneyline (-127)
