The St. Louis Cardinals host the New York Mets on May 2, 2025. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
After suffering a convincing four-game sweep at Citi Field in which they were outscored 19-9, the Cardinals hope to fare better in their second series of the season versus the Mets. Sonny Gray (3.60 ERA, 35 IP) will get a rematch against Clay Holmes (2.64 ERA, 30 2/3 IP) in the series opener.
Find my Mets vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and the latest MLB odds.
My Mets vs Cardinals Prediction
- Mets vs Cardinals picks: Clay Holmes Under 4.5 Strikeouts -104 (FanDuel, Play to -110)
My Mets vs Cardinals best bet is Clay Holmes under 4.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Cardinals Odds, Lines
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -120o / -103u | -118 |
| St. Louis Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 7.5 -120o / -103u | +100 |
Mets vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) | Stat | RHP Sonny Gray (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 3-0 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.64/2.95 | ERA /xERA | 3.60/4.02 |
| 2.18/3.25 | FIP / xFIP | 3.80/3.53 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 17.6% | K-BB% | 18.8% |
| 55.7% | GB% | 31.6% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 96 |
Nick Martin’s Mets vs Cardinals Preview
Mets Betting Preview: Holmes Rolling
The dominance of the Mets' starting rotation has been a major storyline this season. Their starters rank first in baseball with an ERA of 2.68.
Holmes has overachieved preseason expectations so far, pitching to a 2.64 ERA and 2.95 xERA after finishing his 2024 campaign with a 3.29 xERA across 63 innings of work.
A look under the hood suggests Holmes does appear to be pitching at a high level, as he holds a 3.25 xFIP and has struck out 10.57 batters per nine.
His Stuff+ rating of 101 and Pitching+ rating of 105 are down considerably from last season, though, as are his chase and whiff rates.
While Holmes did fare well in his previous matchups versus the Cardinals, who have hit righties well, he's had a soft schedule overall. His opponents have an average rank of 18.66 in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.
The Mets have been in great form offensively, and considering the quality of their starting pitching, it's no surprise they enter this matchup at 21-11. They hold a seventh-ranked wRC+ of 108, rank sixth in BB/K ratio and hold the third-highest xBA in the league.
They've been slightly less effective against right-handed pitchers, holding a wRC+ of 104 and a .318 wOBA.
Cardinals Betting Preview: Scrappy Offense and a Solid Gray
The Cardinals will hope for more success as they take another look at Holmes just 12 days after he dominated them at Citi Field.
They managed only four hits and one earned run in six innings versus Holmes in their previous matchup and struck out six times.
The Cardinals have been quite scrappy at the plate overall this season. They've seen the third-most pitches in baseball entering this matchup. They hold the third-lowest strikeout rate in the league versus right-handed pitching and the fifth-highest batting average versus righties.
Gray is off to a great start in the 13th season of his excellent career, as he holds a record of 3-0 and has already given the Cardinals 35 innings of work.
His underlying results are also solid. He holds a 4.06 xERA and 3.52 xFIP. However, his Pitching+ rating of 97 is down considerably from last year's mark of 107, and his K-BB% is down to 18.8.
Mets vs Cardinals Prediction, Prop Pick Analysis
This appears to be a good time to fade Holmes' strikeout prop. His 4.5 line looks to be inflated considering this matchup.
Holmes's whiff and chase rates are down this season, and that makes sense, as his stuff has been worse based on pitch metrics.
Despite generating less swing and miss with stuff that appears to be worse, he currently holds a higher strikeout rate this season than last.
Though the Cardinals did strikeout six times versus Holmes in last month's matchup, it seems unlikely he'll get close to that total in Friday's rematch, and it could benefit St. Louis that it saw him so recently.
The Cardinals have done a great job of working extended at-bats this season, haven't struck out much versus righties and have also hit for average versus right-handed pitching.
At -104, I see value in backing Holmes to record under 4.5 strikeouts and I would play it to -110.
Pick: Clay Holmes Under 4.5 Strikeouts -104 (FanDuel)
Moneyline
The prices on the sides in this matchup look fair to me. The Cardinals' chances of having a fairly effective day against Holmes might be underrated, but I'm also not overly convinced about backing Gray as a slight underdog in a tough matchup versus the Mets.
Run Line (Spread)
There's no bet I'll be making in terms of the run line.
Over/Under
My lean would be with the over 7.5 in terms of the total, but I have no bet here either.
