Orioles vs Yankees Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Thursday, May 25
New York Yankees/Getty Images. Pictured: Gleyber Torres
- The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles in the rubber match of a three-game set tonight in the Bronx.
- Baltimore will send veteran Kyle Gibson to the mound, while New York is set to counter with Clarke Schmidt.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including how to bet it.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
+102 / -122
+102 / -122
The Yankees’ hot streak was stopped dead in its tracks on Wednesday night in a crushing 9-6 loss to the Orioles, and now they’ll be out to avoid their first losing streak since May 2 with another game against Baltimore on Thursday.
Can Clarke Schmidt right the ship and put the home team in a winning position? Let’s break this all down in our Orioles vs. Yankees preview and prediction.
New York may be hot, but Baltimore is playing ball at the same level. This team has now won six of eight to cement itself as a player in the AL East as we get set to end the month of May.
The Orioles rank ninth in wRC+ over the last two weeks, striking out in just 20.5% of their plate appearances and sporting a .205 Isolated Power. They’re now 13th in expected wOBA and have the seventh-worst differential between their xwOBA and real wOBA, indicating that this hot streak may simply be some long-awaited positive regression.
The tough part is that all momentum could be stopped in an instant with Kyle Gibson toeing the slab. The veteran right-hander has been pretty miserable this year with a 4.85 xERA and high .273 expected batting average, which would be his worst since 2020, and his .456 xSLG is the second-highest he’s had tracked by Statcast.
Gibson’s turned into more of a fly ball pitcher in the last two seasons, coming in right around the league average after posting five straight seasons with a ground ball rate over 50%.
The influx of fly balls and increased average launch angle has combined with a career-worst 40.3% hard-hit rate and low 16.7% strikeout rate to make for a tough pitcher to put your money on.
Speaking of tough pitchers to put your money on, Schmidt hasn’t exactly had himself a season to remember either. The 27-year-old has had similar batted ball numbers to Gibson with a much worse hard-hit rate, leading to a .270 xBA and .458 xSLG.
His 26.1% strikeout rate is very solid and has saved him from further damage, though it’s hard to argue things can get much worse than a 6.00 ERA through 10 starts.
The good news is that Schmidt has now had three great starts in May with one seven-run disaster sandwiched in between. That start did come against the Tampa Bay Rays, which is slightly understandable, and he’s still allowed just one home run this month.
As for the Yankees’ offense, it continues to hum along. New York got two home runs from Gleyber Torres on Wednesday in what was yet another offensive exhibition for a team ranked fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks.
The bullpen is what ultimately let down the Yankees, though with all of their high-leverage arms working in the games prior that’ll happen. The likes of Michael King and Ron Marinaccio should be available here should this one turn into a tight game.
Orioles vs. Yankees Betting Pick
I’ll continue to bite on the Yankees as short home favorites simply due to the fact that this team is hitting the ball like crazy right now. That didn’t change on Wednesday against Tyler Wells, and now on Thursday they’ll draw another slightly fly ball-happy arm in Gibson. I don’t see why anything here would change for this lineup.
On the other side of this one, while I respect what Baltimore has done I do think Schmidt is starting to see some positive regression and continues to strike out batters at a high rate. That should be what he needs to get by a Baltimore offense that was very quiet outside of one loud inning, which was really made much worse than it actually was by some Quadruple-A bullpen arms.
I still see value in drinking the juice here with the Yankees up to -140 given they’re 17-11 in the Bronx this year and 15-9 as home favorites.
Pick: Yankees -132 (Bet to -140)
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