Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bronx Bombers Have All the Edges (April 28)
Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
- The Yankees have won the first two games of the series against the Orioles.
- The matchups seem to indicate the Yankees will sweep the Orioles on Thursday in MLB action.
- Doug Ziefel shares his best bets below.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Bronx Bombers have come to life against the Orioles in this series. In game one, New York powered its way to a 12-8 victory as its racked up 13 hits, including five homers. Of those five homers, three came from Anthony Rizzo.
Game two was more of the same as four of New York’s five runs came via the long ball with Joey Gallo hitting his second home run in as many games. The Yankees will go against a familiar face in Bruce Zimmermann as they look to continue their home run barrage.
It also looks as if New York will get a considerable boost from Mother Nature as strong winds will be blowing out toward the short porch in right. Keeping the ball out of the air will be critical in this matchup and it just so happens that one starter excels at that and the other does not.
O’s Offensive Struggles Will Continue
Baltimore may have broken out a bit in the first game of this series as it enjoyed the short porch and put up eight runs. However, that may have been an outlier as the offense came crashing down to earth a night later.
Overall, the bats have struggled mightily for Baltimore as they’ll enter Thursday’s matchup with a .210 team batting average (26th in MLB). Being unable to get hits obviously hampers run production and subsequently, the O’s are 27th in runs scored.
To make matters worse, Baltimore is set to face Jameson Taillon, who has dominated the current Baltimore lineup while in pinstripes. Taillon has held the O’s to a .214 batting average in 42 at-bats. The Orioles have also had trouble making contact and when they have, it’s been relatively soft. Against Tallion, Baltimore has a 26.7 strikeout rate and an average exit velocity of 88.6 mph.
The Orioles lineup is very right-handed heavy, which plays into the favorable side of Taillon’s splits. Over his career, Taillon has held righties to a .245 average. If you take it a step further, righties have only hit .236 against Taillon when he’s pitching at home.
Lastly, Baltimore’s right-handed heavy lineup will be at a bit of a disadvantage since it won’t have the wind in its favor to the pull side. That, along with Taillion’s sinker slider combo, should keep the O’s quiet.
Bronx Bombers Should Light Up Zimmermann
I mentioned in the open that the Yankees have played to their Bronx Bomber nickname through the first two games of this series, and they may have their biggest output in this matchup.
Zimmermann has dazzled through three starts this season and will enter this start with a 1.20 ERA. However, his expected stats point to inevitable regression. He’s in the bottom third of the league in average exit velocity and barrel percentage.
This is a lineup that will be trouble for Zimmermann. The wind will give the Yankees a tremendous boost as Zimmermann is right around the league average in flyball rate and is well above the league average in home runs allowed per nine innings. With the wind blowing toward the short porch, we could see many cans of corn carry over the fence.
The Yankees are in line to finish off the series sweep here as their lineup has heated up in a big way over the first two games. Those runs should go a long way with Taillon on the mound, as he’ll keep the O’s bats quiet.
I expect the winds blowing to the short port to be a massive factor that favors not just the lefties for the Yankees, but also the righties. So back the Yanks to bash their way to a series sweep.
Pick: Yankees – 1.5 (-115)