Padres vs. Cubs MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Fade Bats Against Both Sinker-Ball Pitchers (Tuesday, June 14)
Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Sean Manaea
- The Chicago Cubs (+120 odds) are short home underdogs on Tuesday against the San Diego Padres.
- With two sinker-ball pitchers on the mound, can they keep the ball low in the zone as winds blow out of Wrigley?
- Mike Ianniello breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Padres vs. Cubs Odds
|Over/Under||10.5 (-120 / +105)|
|Time||8:05 p.m. ET|
San Diego took the first game of this series 4-1 in a dominant outing by both starting pitchers. Both starters went at least seven innings and allowed just one run.
Will the Padres Bats Help Out Manaea?
The Padres acquired Sean Manaea (LHP) from Oakland over the offseason, and he has been his usual reliable self. He has a 3.52 ERA and 3.64 xFIP and is not an elite pitcher by any metric, but he gets the job done.
Manaea’s nine quality starts rank fourth in the league. He has lasted at least six innings in seven straight starts and 10 of his 11 outings this year. The sinker-baller doesn’t have high-end strikeout upside, and his Walk Rate is up to 3.13, which would be a career high. If he can get that under control, his numbers could improve.
Things in Slam Diego have cooled off a bit as the Padres rank just 26th in home runs this season. Without superstar Fernando Tatis, the Padres rank 25th in wOBA. They have been even worse over the last month, sitting just 28th.
Manny Machado is the only player on San Diego with a wRC+ above 120. He ranks among the top 10 in the league in wRC+ and wOBA and is second in the entire league in WAR.
Can Hendricks and the Cubs Find Some Momentum?
The one-time ace, Kyle Hendricks (RHP), has joined Dallas Keuchel in Chicago as the Corpse of Jake Arrieta tribute band. He is a shell of his former self, sitting with a career-high 5.22 ERA. He has the 10th-highest ERA among all pitchers with at least 50 innings.
Hendricks’ 5.44 xERA is somehow even higher, and his 5.68 K/9 is the lowest of his career and in the bottom 10% of the entire league. His fastball has a ridiculous 60.8% Hard-Hit%. Hendricks hasn’t pitched since June 1 because he’s been “dealing with some stuff,” per David Ross.
The rebuilding Cubs have actually been league average on offense this season. They sit 12th in wOBA and 16th in wRC+ on the year, and over the last two weeks, they sit among the top 10 in both categories.
Rookie sensation Seiya Suzuki is currently on the injured list, but the last sign of the old guard, Wilson Contreras, is certainly doing his part to boost his trade value. Contreras has a wRC+ over 154 and a xwOBA of .424, ninth in the league.
The nice thing about Manaea is you very rarely need to worry about a blow-up performance from him. In his 11 starts this season, he has allowed more than three runs just twice as you can pretty much pencil him in for six solid innings.
Hendricks will certainly make you sweat, and he can lose this bet all by himself, but the Padres offense has really underperformed this season. On top of that, they’ve really struggled against right-handed pitching.
San Diego ranks just 26th in wOBA and 25th in wRC+ against righties this season. Machado has been the Padres’ only consistent bat this year, and while Cronenworth is finally starting to get going too, they both are better against lefties.
Behind these two starters are bullpens that rank first and sixth in reliever xFIP. Both bullpens sit among the top seven in K-BB% and top five in SIERA.
The biggest concern here is the 13 miles per hour wind blowing out to center field. It takes some guts to fade mother nature, but with two sinker-ball pitchers on the mound, let’s hope they keep the ball down in the zone and inside the park.
Pick: Under 10.5 (-110)