Padres vs Dodgers Odds, Pick Tonight

At least for two games, the Padres found their offense and came away with a big series win over the Chicago Cubs last week. Now, they face an even more difficult test when they travel to Los Angeles to face their rivals for a three-game weekend set.

Can Yoshinobu Yamamoto exact some revenge over San Diego after his disastrous start in the Japan Series, or will this surging offense and Michael King get the better of him?

Let's break it all down below.

The Padres have been a rather confusing team to bet on to this point in the season. Sure, they're ninth in wRC+ and all appears fine on the surface, but they've almost been a below-average offense aside from four incredible games, one of which came in a wacky 15-11 win over the Dodgers in Japan.

While San Diego continues to excel at limiting strikeouts, it isn't taking as many walks as it did a season ago at a lousy 8.9% rate. Furthermore, while its expected slugging ranks inside the top 10 of the league — which has led to the second-best home run to fly ball ratio — we've seen a drastic swing in fly ball rate that has taken the team down towards the bottom of the league.

Over on the hill, the jury is still very much out on Michael King, who is being converted to a full-time starter after years of brilliance as a multi-inning reliever. He's produced a very acceptable 3.14 ERA to this point, but his strikeout numbers have fallen off a cliff while his walk rate has ballooned to a troubling 17.2%. His expected batting average has also jumped from .227 to .246 and his expected slugging is up to a gaudy .425 from .364 a year ago.

Without the strikeouts, it's hard to see how King will come anywhere close to matching the form we saw him in when he came out of the bullpen with the Yankees. He's never been much of a ground ball pitcher, and this season he's allowed far more hard contact on top of issuing a plethora of free passes.

For all the trouble Yamamoto had against the Padres in his first career start, he's done well to make that outing seem like a distant memory. He went back out nine days later and fired five scoreless innings against the Cardinals and has allowed just five hits in 10 innings across his last two starts to three walks and 13 punchouts.

The fastball does, in fact, seem like it can play at this level, and he's even married the strikeouts with a solid 50% ground ball rate — something that can take time to build when jumping to the major-league level. That and the punchouts mask the issues that come along with a 53.6% hard-hit rate, and it's encouraging that Yamamoto has still found outs on the ground despite L.A. ranking 20th in outs above average in the infield to this point.

On offense, it's hard to find much to shake a fist at with the Dodgers. They may be a shade under where they were a year ago in the fly ball department, but they're still producing them at a high 39.9% rate and hitting a homer 14% of the time the ball comes back in the air, the fifth-highest mark in the league. With top-three marks in hard-hit rate and barrel rate, it's easy to see why this team grades out as the second-best offense in wRC+. Strikeouts have been a bit of a concern, but with a stellar 10.4% walk rate along with all the power, it's been very easy to accept.

King's season hasn't exactly gone to plan to this point when you look at his complete profile. He's not exactly allowing an inordinate number of fly balls, but without the ball coming back on the ground much, it's hard to see him having an easy go of it if these Dodgers do manage to make contact.

He could see a slight increase in punchouts against a team striking out in nearly 27% of plate appearances, but as one of the most patient teams in the league for yet another season, a meeting with the Dodgers should further magnify King's issues with walks.

I have a hard time trusting the Padres' offense despite a couple of solid performances in recent games, where they had the benefit of facing some very weak pitchers in Kyle Hendricks, Jose Cuas and some struggling Cubs relievers.

Expect the Dodgers to get to King and bring some regression to his ERA while Yamamoto continues on with his brilliant recent form to exact some revenge on San Diego. Without the ability to draw walks, and with its ground balls playing right into the hands of Yamamoto, L.A. should get off to an exceptional start here.

Pick: Dodgers First Five Innings -0.5 (-120)

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