Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Philadelphia Should Cover on Thursday Afternoon (May 19)

Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Philadelphia Should Cover on Thursday Afternoon (May 19) article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Schwarber

  • The Phillies are home favorites (-120 moneyline odds) against the Padres on Thursday afternoon.
  • With Yu Darvish on the mound, is there value on the Padres as road 'dogs?
  • Check out Jules Posner's betting pick and analysis below.

Padres vs. Phillies Odds

Padres Odds+100
Phillies Odds-120
Time1:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies square off in a rubber match Thursday afternoon.

Both games had a final score of 3-0, and the Phillies look to get back to the .500 mark with a win on Thursday.

The Padres look to keep pace with the Los Angeles Dodgers and hold off the San Francisco Giants in the NL West with a victory.

Yu Darvish takes the mound for the Padres, and Kyle Gibson will get the start for the Phillies. The two veterans have pretty similar overall numbers, but both pitchers have pretty dramatic splits heading into this match up.

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Will the Padres Offense Step Up for Darvish?

Yu Darvish has really struggled on the road in 2022. Over 19 and 1/3 innings, he has a 7.91 ERA but a 4.35 FIP. Even if there is positive regression on Thursday, the ceiling is relatively low.

One thing working in the Padres' favor is that their bullpen has been trending in the right direction. Following a rough start to the season, the Padres' pen has posted the seventh-best FIP over the past two weeks. If Darvish finds himself in trouble, the Padres bullpen seems to be a in a good place to stop the bleeding.

However, the Padres offense has been in a little bit of a slump on the road against RHP as they've posted a 55 team wRC+, which is fifth-worst in MLB.

Another huge factor here is that Bryce Harper has missed three straight games, and there is no doubt that game-planning around a Harper-less Phillies offense is much easier on Bob Melvin's conscience.

Phillies Need to Step Up Against Righties

Kyle Gibson has had an up-and-down year so far in 2022, but when he is up, it's usually at home. Gibson has posted a 1.93 ERA with a 2.98 FIP in 18 and 2/3 home innings.

He is flanked by the Phillies bullpen, which is everything you need to know there.

However, the Phillies offense has been trending down at home against RHP over the past few weeks. Over the past two weeks the Phillies have posted an 80 team wRC+ at home against RHP, which is down from 102 over the past three weeks.

If Bryce Harper can return Thursday, it would be … a real shot in the arm … because … okay nevermind.

Padres-Phillies Pick

This is a tricky match up because both bullpens are less trustworthy than my older brother when he tried to convince me (successfully) that it was a good idea if he collected all baseball and football cards, and I collected  basketball and hockey cards. Then I gave him all my football and baseball cards.

Anyway. I'm over it.

However, there is something that is too tempting to pass up in this matchup. Gibson and Darvish have very distinct splits in a given situation, and while both teams seem to be in offensive slumps, the Phillies runline at -1.5 is available in the +160 range.

If the data didn't indicate that this was a realistic possibility, the moneyline would be the play here, but that runline payout is too good of a value to pass up. Go for broke, and take the runline.

Pick: Phillies Runline +160

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