The Cincinnati Reds host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 12, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSOH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Reds Prediction
- Phillies vs Reds Picks: Phillies ML (-146 | Play to -160)
My Phillies vs Reds best bet is Phillies moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Reds Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9 -115o / -105u | -150 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9 -115o / -105u | +125 |
Phillies vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Brady Singer (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 9-9 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 2.94 / 3.16 | ERA /xERA | 4.53 / 4.42 |
| 3.12 / 3.67 | FIP / xFIP | 4.15 / 4.39 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 16.2% | K-BB% | 12.6% |
| 47.7% | GB% | 37.1% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 111 | Location+ | 99 |
Tony Sartori’s Phillies vs Reds Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Despite getting overshadowed by Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia’s Ranger Suárez would be an ace on most teams in the league. Through 17 starts this season, Suárez is 8-5 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Suárez ranks in the 82nd percentile in expected ERA (xERA), 99th percentile in average exit velocity, 83rd percentile in barrel rate and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate.
That success is likely to continue against Cincinnati, a team Suárez is 2-0 against with a 2.12 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across nine career meetings.
Following Suárez is a bullpen due for positive regression. Although they have produced some inconsistent outings, the Phillies’ relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in expected FIP (xFIP).
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
In comparison, the Reds’ bullpen ranks 27th in the same category. Not only does Cincinnati have a weaker relief corps, but it also owns the inferior starting pitcher in this matchup.
Brady Singer has a 4.53 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through 23 starts this season. His analytics are equally poor, as the former first-round draft pick ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and barrel rate.
Singer has faced Philadelphia only once in his career, and it was a terrible outing. He surrendered five runs on 11 hits en route to an 11-2 loss.
The right-hander may also struggle to receive run support from a lineup that lacks power. This season, the Reds rank in the bottom half of the league in slugging percentage, OPS and home runs.
Phillies vs Reds Prediction, Betting Analysis
On the other hand, the Phillies rank in the top 12 in each of those three categories. In this matchup, Philadelphia holds the starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting advantages.
The only factor likely keeping the Phillies’ price down is that Cincinnati is playing on its home diamond. That said, the teams’ road and home records are nearly identical.
Pick: Phillies ML (-146 | Play to -160)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting the Phillies moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like the Phillies to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the under, but don't trust Singer.
