The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on October 8, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on truTV.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction
- Phillies vs Dodgers picks: Phillies ML (+158) | Play to +145
My Phillies vs Dodgers best bet is the Phillies moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
- - | - - / - | - |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
- - | - - / - | - |
| RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) | Stat | RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-10 | W-L | 12-8 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5 |
| 6.01/4.25 | ERA /xERA | 2.49/2.73 |
| 4.58/3.72 | FIP / xFIP | 2.94/3.05 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 0.99 |
| 17.1% | K-BB% | 20.8% |
| 42.5% | GB% | 52.8% |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 104 | Location+ | 110 |
Kenny Ducey’s Phillies vs Dodgers Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Nola Trending in Right Direction
It's not every day I say nice things about Aaron Nola, but today is one of those days. Sometimes you have to believe in matchups even if you don't believe in certain pitchers, and while the veteran is one of the most homer-prone in the game with shaky numbers on contact, he's done well against this team in the past.
Nola did allow two homers over six innings in the only meeting he had with the Dodgers this season, but he allowed just three runs in total over six frames to bring his career ERA against L.A. to a respectable 4.31. At Dodger Stadium, he's recorded a 3.76 ERA in four outings, and in the playoffs he owns a 4.02 ERA with 58 strikeouts across 53 2/3 innings. He's gone 5-4 in those outings, and Philly's won six of the 10.
Nola's a low-walk pitcher with slightly above-average strikeout numbers, and while he's pitched to more fly balls this season it did come in a smaller sample — and the righty finished the year with a solid .205 Expected Batting Average in September while his whiff rate sat consistently above 25% in his final two months. It would seem he came back stronger after his injury, and while he's coughed up plenty of runs in certain outings this season the majority of them came earlier in the year.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Ground Balls Good For Yamamoto, L.A. Infield
It's a lot harder to poke holes in the season Yoshinobu Yamamoto has had. His expected numbers have glistened and his 29.4% strikeout rate is backed by strong whiff and chase rates. His pedestrian 8.6% walk rate has been a byproduct, and when he saw the Phillies back in April he struck out five to three walks in what was overall a good but flawed outing.
The righty does own a 2.84 ERA in postseason career, a number which is pretty impressive considering he began last October with a brutal start against the San Diego Padres. He worked around a couple of unearned runs against the Cincinnati Reds in the wild-card round to finish with nine punchouts to two walks and four hits over 6 2/3 innings, but this offense will surely be a taller task.
Yamamoto has been an extreme ground ball pitcher this season, which has worked out well given the Dodgers' infield ranks sixth in Outs Above Average, but if Philly can get the ball into the outfield it'll take aim at the 11th-worst group. The outfield improved only marginally in September, but the infield finished first in the league with +9 OAA.
Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Phillies may be lacking gumption at the plate in this series, and one of the big issues has been their depressed .109 Isolated Power. While they haven't put together consistent results against ground-ballers like Yamamoto, however, they've still slugged .396 to rank ninth in the league and will hope that many of the hard-hit balls we've seen against the Japanese import turn into extra bases.
It doesn't seem like Harrison Bader is going to be an option to return for the Phillies here, which could be a significant blow, but there's hope to be found in Philly's discipline. The team has walked in nearly 10% of its plate appearances through two games to cushion the blow of its 30.1% strikeout rate, and with a nibbler like Yamamoto on the hill it would seem likely that the Phillies can get a couple extra runners on base.
The righty has been significantly reliant on his 28.9% whiff rate to get strikeouts with his chase rate falling in merely the 76th percentile of all pitchers, and considering the Phillies' biggest issue has been chasing — ranking fourth-worst in the second half — I think we'll see a repeat performance of their modest success against Yamamoto six months ago.
I don't really like betting on Nola, but I don't foresee a catastrophe. Those are famous last words when you're talking about Aaron Nola, but you have to believe this indisputably talented offense wakes up here and gets the job done.
Pick: Phillies ML (+158) | Play to +145
Moneyline
I like the Phillies moneyline here.
Run Line (Spread)
No play on the spread.
Over/Under
I'm not going to play on the over/under either.
Phillies vs Dodgers Betting Trends
