- The Dodgers host the Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS.
- Nick Martin breaks down the game below and makes a Phillies vs. Dodgers prediction below.
- Continue reading for Martin's Phillies vs. Dodgers pick.
The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on October 9, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 6:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
The Phillies staved off elimination with a convincing 8-2 win in Game 3 and will look to carry some momentum from Wednesday's offensive breakout into a tough matchup versus Tyler Glasnow (3.19 ERA, 90 and 1/3 IP). Cristopher Sanchez (2.57 ERA, 196 and 1/3 IP) will make his second start of the series for the Phillies.
My Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction
- Phillies vs Dodgers pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 5.5 Strikeouts
My Phillies vs Dodgers best bet is on Glasnow to record under 5.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -105o / -115u | -135 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Tyler Glasnow (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 6.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 2.50/3.01 | ERA /xERA | 3.19/3.25 |
| 2.55/2.77 | FIP / xFIP | 3.76/3.72 |
| 1.06 | WHIP | 2.40 |
| 20.8% | K-BB% | 17.2% |
| 58.3% | GB% | 44.4% |
| 114 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 101 | Location+ | 91 |
Nick Martin’s Phillies vs Dodgers Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
In the 12 half-innings that have followed Blake Snell's departure from Game 2, the Phillies have racked up 18 hits and struck out just 9.2% of the time. Philadelphia held an xBA of .312 in Game 3, faring quite well versus Yoshinobu Yamamoto before lighting up Clayton Kershaw to put the game out of reach.
The heart of Philadelphia's order had been struggling to break through, but Kyle Schwarber's momentous fourth-inning moonshot seemed to provide a turning point. Batters 1-4 finished 9-for-16 in Game 3. The Dodgers had aggressively attacked Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the zone throughout the series and had found plenty of success, as the pair had combined for just one hit entering the fourth inning of Game 3.
Tyler Glasnow will provide a tough test to be sure, but on paper he does provide a more favorable matchup than Game 2 starter Blake Snell, who pitched six scoreless innings. The Phillies have a sixth-best wRC+ of 110 versus right-handed pitchers this season, striking out at the sixth-lowest rate while making soft contact at the second-lowest rate.
Particularly considering the strength of the Dodgers lineup, Sanchez had a strong outing in Game 1, allowing two earned runs and four hits across five and 2/3 innings of work. He also racked up eight strikeouts and held an xFIP of 1.90.
As I outlined ahead of my losing pick on the Phillies to win Game 1, Sanchez has pitched considerably better at home historically, with an xFIP of 2.79 and a strikeout minus walk rate of 21.4% at home in his career. Still, Sanchez was a highly effective starter on the road this season, pitching to an ERA of 3.02 and a 3.09 xFIP across 104 and 2/3 innings on the road this season.
As Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez combined for seven innings in Wednesday's matchup, which followed an off-day, the majority of Philadelphia's high-leverage arms are well rested entering this matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
As expected, the Dodgers bullpen has been the team's greatest concern throughout what has been a dominant postseason for the team overall. In their first five postseason games, Los Angeles's bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 7.45 and an xFIP of 5.79, while its starters hold an ERA of 2.43.
Glasnow holds a betting total of 14.5 outs in this matchup, and the Phillies will likely be pleased if they are able to chase Glasnow prior to the fifth inning and get into what has been a very shaky bullpen.
Glasnow has worked only 21 and 2/3 innings since the start of September and holds an ERA of 2.49 and an xFIP of 3.77 in those outings. His recent pitch metrics are down considerably compared to his career averages, as he holds a Stuff+ of 96 and a Pitching+ of 88 in his last four outings, compared to a Stuff+ of 109 and a Pitching+ of 111 throughout his career.
The Dodgers offense has been highly productive this postseason, hitting to a wRC+ of 127 with an xwOBA of .342. They were the third most productive team in the league versus lefties this season and look to be an even more imposing lineup for lefties now that Mookie Betts has trended into top form after a horrid start to the year.
Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Sanchez has been a superior starter than Glasnow this season, who has not worked much of late and has seen a sharp decline in terms of quality of stuff. The Phillies have hit four-seamers and sliders well this season and have also been more productive versus righties, and in particular have displayed much greater plate discipline.
While the Phillies bullpen was a key reason the team lost Game 1, it still projects as the superior unit, and is in great shape entering tonight's matchup.
As a result of their pitching edges, my lean would be with backing the Phillies to find a way to extend the series in tonight's matchup.
However, I see more value in backing Glasnow to record less than 5.5 strikeouts in this matchup. The Phillies have struck out at a high-rate in the series, including their top batters in particular, but much of that was due to the elite quality of stuff offered from Ohtani and Snell in their starts.
The rest of the time Philadelphia has struck out at a much lower rate, and this seems like a good spot to fade Glasnow in the strikeout market considering how poorly his stuff has graded out recently and that the Phillies have displayed a sharper offensive process against righties this season.
At +110 or better I see value backing Glasnow to record under 5.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120, bet365; play to +110)
