Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Nick Martin has that job for Tuesday, August 11.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Mets F5 Moneyline (-106 – FanDuel, Play to -110)
- Diamondbacks -1.5 (+116 – FanDuel, Play to +105)
Mets vs Braves Picks
Though the Mets have had a disastrous season relative to their payroll and roster construction, their offense has lived up to expectations over a fairly lengthy sample and has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching. Since June 1, New York owns a 117 wRC+ against lefties and will provide a tough test for Martin Perez on Tuesday.
The Mets will also have top starter Nolan McLean on the mound, who has been quite effective of late. Over his last ten starts, McLean has pitched to a 2.93 ERA with a 3.06 xFIP and a 21.3% strikeout-minus-walk rate. He also owns a strong 105 Pitching+ rating over that span.
While the vast majority of starters see their numbers decline when working through the order for a third time, McLean's splits are particularly extreme. He has pitched to a 2.86 ERA the first time through the order and a 2.92 ERA the second time, compared to a 6.15 ERA when facing hitters for a third time.
Perez is outperforming his underlying metrics for a fifth straight season, so it might not be smart to count on too much regression from the crafty veteran. But he still doesn't seem to be in the same tier as McLean, and a career-best strand rate has been a big part of his success thus far.
Considering the Mets' production versus lefties over the last three months and the way McLean has worked through the first two times in the order, a price of -106 looks appealing for backing the Mets to win the first five innings of this game.
Picks: Mets F5 Moneyline (-106 — FanDuel, Play to -110)
Rockies vs Diamondbacks Picks
Contrary to the AL, there will be one strong ball club that misses out on the postseason in the N.L., potentially with close to 90 wins. With a 13-7 record over their last 20 games, the Diamondbacks are making a strong push to avoid being the odd team out, and they have a great opportunity to earn another win at home Tuesday after crushing the Rockies 9-0 in the series opener.
Tomoyuki Sugano holds a 7.16 xERA across 107.2 innings this season, ranks in the first percentile in barrel rate, and owns a strikeout-minus-walk rate of just 7.8%. Arizona's offense has been in much better form of late, as over the last month it holds a wRC+ of 111, and holds the best BB/K ratio in baseball by a fairly wide margin.
Mitch Bratt enters this matchup off the best start of his career and has generally been quite solid aside from a pair of ugly appearances against the Nationals and Dodgers, who are among the best offenses in the league against left-handed pitching. The Rockies hold a wRC+ of 82 versus lefties this season and offer Bratt the most favorable start of his career on paper.
Though Bratt is unproven and likely to be a fairly average starter, he should outperform Sugano considerably and will face a much easier lineup than his counterpart. Though the Diamondbacks are huge favorites, the potential for another comfortable win seems quite high, and at +116 I see value backing them to cover the run-line.
Picks: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+116 — FanDuel, Play to +105)
Martin's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, August 11
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Mets F5 Moneyline (-106 – FanDuel, Play to -110)
- Diamondbacks -1.5 (+116 -FanDuel, Play to +105)
