The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 26, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Mets Prediction
- Phillies vs Mets pick: Mets ML (-105)
My Phillies vs Mets best bet is on the Mets moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -105 |
Phillies vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-6 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 4.10/3.47 | ERA /xERA | 5.15/3.77 |
| 3.04/3.27 | FIP / xFIP | 3.93/3.60 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 20.0% | K-BB% | 23.3% |
| 42.6% | GB% | 35.4% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 109 | Location+ | 98 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
My favorite underdog play today is on the Mets Moneyline. They’re around -105, so not plus money, but still technically the underdog.
The Mets pretty much need to win out against the Phillies in their head-to-head matchups to have any shot in the NL East. They got off to a great start last night, blasting Christopher Sánchez and the Phillies’ bullpen in a 13–3 win. That also gave them a bit of breathing room, now 2.5 games ahead of the Reds for the final wild-card spot.
This is a situation where I’m examining the recent form of the two starting pitchers and going against the market's current trend. As of this writing, 89% of the bets are on the Phillies, but only 69% of the money. That 21% gap points toward sharper action on the Mets.
Jesus Luzardo has been incredibly feast-or-famine for the Phillies this season. He’s coming off one of his best outings of the year—12 strikeouts, one run in six innings against Seattle. But Sean Manaea has had a very rough August, posting an ERA north of seven. He gave up four runs over 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Nationals.
Even so, there are reasons to back Manaea tonight. His underlying numbers suggest he’s been much better than his 5.15 ERA: his expected ERA sits in the low threes, his BABIP is inflated compared to last year, and his strikeouts are up while his walks are down. Manaea also puts the Phillies in their worst offensive split, as they struggle more against left-handed pitching.
To be fair, Luzardo does the same to the Mets, as they’ve been elite against right-handers but average against lefties. Still, since the All-Star break, the Mets have posted a 134 wRC+ against southpaws, reflecting the lineup they currently have post-deadline.
Given that, I think Manaea is the better starter in this matchup, and I like the Mets’ offensive outlook against Luzardo more than I like the Phillies’ against Manaea.
So I’m on the Mets moneyline (-105). I’m also playing the Over, since both bullpens are unreliable. If Manaea’s bad luck continues, that only helps push the total higher.
Pick: Mets ML (-105)
Phillies vs Mets Parlay
- Mets ML
- Over 8 Total Runs
Parlay odds: +270 (Fanatics)
Phillies vs Mets Betting Trends
