The Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 25, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -186 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +156 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction
- Phillies vs Nationals Pick: Nationals F5 Moneyline (+150, bet to +125)
My Phillies vs Nationals best bet is on Washington to be winning after the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Nationals Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -186 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +156 |
- Phillies vs Nationals moneyline: Phillies -186, Nationals +156
- Phillies vs Nationals over/under: 8.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Phillies vs Nationals spread: Phillies -1.5 (-118), Nationals +1.5 (-102)
Phillies vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Cade Cavalli (WSN) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | W-L | 4-4 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 1.80/2.96 | ERA / xERA | 4.07/4.50 |
| 2.26/2.47 | FIP / xFIP | 3.50/3.96 |
| 23.8% | K-BB% | 15.5% |
| 57.3% | GB% | 46.9% |
| .316 | BABIP | .356 |
| 119 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 99 | Location+ | 95 |
Phillies vs Nationals MLB Betting Preview
I have been siding with the Nationals quite a bit this season. And their bullpen has blown every one of those games.
But on a more serious note, I knew I would be on Washington in this series because the market is still both over-valuing the Philadelphia offense (75 wRC+ on the road, 95 vs RHP) and under-valuing the Washington one (107 wRC+ at home, 122 vs LHP).
There’s absolutely no way to compare Cristopher Sanchez and Cade Cavalli and call it close. Especially considering the latter’s 4.22 SIERA and .351 xwOBA allowed over the last month.
One is a top-three Cy Young contender, and the other is an average pitcher. I rate Sanchez more than a run and a quarter better, and it appears BARTOLO agrees.
The Phillies also have a massive bullpen edge, nearly a run and a half by L30 day estimator average (FIP, xFIP, SIERA), and with a 27 team gap via BARTOLO on the season. It doesn’t get much wider.
However, in addition to their overrated offense, the Phillies also have an atrocious defense (27th with -14 Runs Prevented and -18 OAA) with their standard lineup against RHIP weighing in at -17 FRV.
That’s another area where the Nationals have improved (20th with -4 Runs Prevented and -8 OAA) with their standard lineup against LHP at 7 FRV.
Fielding Run Value is a counting stat and doesn’t accurately account for sample sizes, but a 24 FRV difference is still quite generous.
Add in the fact that Kyle Schwarber’s back has been acting up this week after carrying this offense all season, and the offensive gap may grow even larger.
Let’s face it, this is a three-man offense right now with Schwarber (166 wRC+ L30 days, 150 vs RHP), Bryce Harper (145, 180), and Brandon Marsh (151, 147) bearing the burden. Nobody else exceeds a 100 wRC+ in either category.
The projected Philadelphia lineup averages a 96 wRC+ both over the last month and against RHP.
The Washington projected lineup has a 112 wRC+ over the last 30 days and a 113 mark against LHP this year.
Considering we can filter out one large Philadelphia edge, and maybe even the more significant one, by avoiding the bullpen, I believe the F5 offering is far too large and has dropped from +162 to +158 at FanDuel even as I was writing this paragraph.
If you don’t like F5S and would try your luck with the bullpens, I have that rated strongly as well, just not as strongly.
Pick: Nationals F5 Moneyline (+150, bet to +125)
