Phillies vs Astros Expert Picks & Predictions | Tuesday MLB Betting Preview (October 4)

Phillies vs Astros Expert Picks & Predictions | Tuesday MLB Betting Preview (October 4) article feature image

G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston Astros pitcher Framber Valdez

  • The Astros and Phillies meet in one of Wednesday's many meaningless MLB games.
  • With playoff matchups already set, today's games include many question marks about rosters.
  • Despite those unknowns, Nicholas Martin has a bet below for this regular-season finale.

Phillies vs. Astros Odds

Phillies Odds+158
Astros Odds-188
Over/Under7.5 (+100 / -122)
Time8:10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Two teams headed for the postseason will wrap up the regular season slate Wednesday afternoon with a meaningless affair, with each side simply looking to escape unscathed.

Similar to what we saw yesterday, Philadelphia likely won't hand many at-bats to its top pieces or be inclined to throw any kind of high-quality arms since they will take the field on Friday against the Cardinals for the first Wild Card Game of the three-game series.

Houston is in a not entirely similar boat. The Astros will not take the field until Tuesday and therefore may feel more need to let some of the better pitchers on the roster work.

Could these narratives hand us value in the betting markets?

Thin Philadelphia Phillies Lineup?

One night after clinching its first postseason berth in 11 years, the Phillies were destroyed 10-0, and I'm sure absolutely nobody in the clubhouse was remotely concerned in what was somewhat of a scheduled loss.

Wednesday's contest may see Philadelphia hand a few more at-bats to its stars than on Tuesday, but I still expect Bryce Harper and Alex Bohm, who played Tuesday, to rest. It's likely to be the same for others.

Bailey Falter will start the game for the Phillies, and he's pitched to an xERA of 4.55 with poor underlying metrics all across the board, and a poor QOPA of 4.10.

Philadelphia probably also won't use any high-end relievers for the time being.

Astros Still Have Strong Arms Today

Houston would love to see a similar tune-up start from Framber Valdez Wednesday as to what it saw from Justin Verlander's last regular season outing Tuesday.

Valdez has been stellar throughout the 2022 regular season, owning an xERA of 3.39 and a highly impressive xFIP of 3.06, and he undoubtedly offers a considerable edge over Falter to open the contest.

Behind that lies an elite Houston bullpen, and considering the Astros will be off until Tuesday, we could again see Dusty Baker call some strong relievers after Valdez.

Houston will likely be keen to rest some guys as well in this one and could field far from its A-lineup, and in particular, I expect Yordan Alvarez to rest considering his injury history this season.

Phillies-Astros Pick

Similar to what we saw yesterday from Verlander, we can expect Valdez to work around five innings or fewer, yet that still offers his club a notable advantage compared to Falter.

Beyond that, Houston should again be far more likely to have reasonable relievers in the game, considering that the Astors will both receive a steady amount of off-days before the next important contest – and the fact that Houston has a far deeper bullpen anyway.

Which makes me believe that playing the exact same single-game parlay as yesterday, which hit at +160, is my favorite play on this one, though I would definitely go small on anything with so many variables at play here.

We also should note that position players could easily come out early after a couple of at-bats. For me passing on any overs for total bases, home runs and other props makes sense since we do not want those bets honored and then having our guy come out early.

Bet365 lists Houston to win the first 5 innings and cover a run-line on the game at +150 for today's contest, and I believe it is more likely than that long number suggests that we see a similar narrative playout in this contest.

Pick: Houston First 5 Innings + Game Spread -1.5 Parlay +150

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