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MLB Odds, Picks for Phillies vs. Braves: Why to Bet Monday’s Favorite

MLB Odds, Picks for Phillies vs. Braves: Why to Bet Monday’s Favorite article feature image
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Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Nick Castellanos

  • The Phillies are slight favorites on the road tonight against the Braves.
  • Zack Wheeler takes the mound for Philadelphia, opposed by Atlanta's Tucker Davidson.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Phillies vs. Braves Odds

Phillies Odds -125
Braves Odds +105
Over/Under 8.5 (-115 / -105)
Time 7:20 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Both the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies enter play Monday night at 19-22 in the record books. The New York Mets have a comfortable, eight-game lead over the Braves and Phillies in the National League East division.

At least the Phillies have a positive run differential at +11 on the season and a top offense as Philadelphia is 10th in the league in runs scored this season.

The Braves have a negative run differential at -11 on the season and rank 17th in runs scored this season.

In a matchup of struggling National League East division rivals, who will get the job done?

Phillies Should Hit Davidson

The Phillies have a top offense and they should have the advantage here.

Tucker Davidson will be on the mound for the Braves. Davidson threw five shutout innings in his only start for the Braves this season, but in his other appearance he allowed five earned runs out of the bullpen.

Davidson is also a left-handed pitcher and the Phillies have a lot of power against lefties as they have five hitters with ISOs above .200 against left-handed pitching this year in Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Johan Camargo.

Since the beginning of last year, Nick Castellanos has a .276 ISO against left-handed pitching. The Phillies should have the edge against Davidson.

Wheeler Can Shut Down Braves

Zack Wheeler had a rough start to the season, but has really been coming on lately.

In his last four starts, Wheeler has allowed just three earned runs over 26 innings while striking out 30 and walking just six.

The Braves’ lineup has struggled this year as only two hitters have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitchers, while seven hitters in the Braves’ projected lineup have at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching.

Wheeler’s K% since the start of last year is 28% and he’s been racking up the strikeouts lately. He should have the advantage over the Braves offense here.

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Phillies-Braves Pick

I like the Phillies a lot here. Philadelphia has the advantage on both sides of the ball. The Phillies’ offense has been better than the Braves’ offense this year and Philadelphia matchups up well with left-handed pitchers.

Wheeler also appears to be rounding into form lately and should put up another good start.

The model I use likes the Phillies by a little more than a full run in this game. I would take the Phillies moneyline at -135.

Pick: Phillies ML -135

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