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Phillies vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Trust Nola and Philly as Road Favorites (Wednesday, June 8)

Phillies vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Trust Nola and Philly as Road Favorites (Wednesday, June 8) article feature image
Credit:

Via Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola.

  • The Brewers are short underdogs at home against the Phillies on Wednesday.
  • With these teams headed on opposite trajectories, is there value in buying low on the Brewers or riding the Phillies' winning streak?
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Phillies vs. Brewers Odds

Phillies Odds -125
Brewers Odds +105
Over/Under 8 (-115 / -105)
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Philadelphia Phillies are red hot, and they don’t appear ready to stop winning any time soon. After taking the first of three against the ice cold Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday, they’ll look to clinch a series victory on Wednesday with Aaron Nola on the hill.

Can the Brewers stop their cold streak here with Adrian Houser opposing Nola? Let’s dig a bit deeper into this matchup.

Nola and the Phillies Look to Keep Rolling

It seems firing Joe Girardi last week was exactly what this team needed. The Phillies ride into this matchup on a five-game winning streak, fresh off a close 3-2 victory over the Brewers on Tuesday.

Since handing Girardi his walking papers on June 3, the Phillies have registered a 146 wRC++ with a beefy 12% Walk Rate and a delectable 19% Strikeout Rate. However, the Phillies are still struggling to get the bat on the ball consistently with a mediocre 76.7% Contact Rate during that time, but the combination of the walks and sustained quality contact have brought success at the dish. In those five games, Philly is leading baseball with a 13.2% Barrel Rate.

Aaron Nola has been solid again this year by all accounts, but his peripherals offer an even better look into his campaign. His 2.81 xERA comes in over a full run lower than his actual ERA, and his 3.8% Walk Rate and 30.2% Strikeout Rate are elite numbers.

He’s had just a few hiccups this year, the most recent of which came last time out against the Giants when he allowed five runs on five hits over six innings. Aside from those speed bumps, he’s been great — and the numbers would seem to indicate he’s been unfortunate to have said speed bumps.


Will Houser and the Brewers Turn It Around?

The Brewers couldn’t be any different than the Phillies right now. They’ve won just one game in their last seven as they attempt to find themselves at the plate. Milwaukee owns just a 60 wRC+ over the last week, an ugly number that is only out-done by four teams over that span. The Brewers are striking out in an unsightly 26.4% of plate appearances and walking in just 7.7%.

This is sort of how this team has operated for the better part of the last year, though. For the season, they’re almost exactly average with a 17th-ranked 97 wRC+, and if you recall, last season they were around average for the season as well. In the first half, the Brewers were one of the worst offenses in baseball, and in the second half, they were elite. This season has started in similar fashion with alternating periods of magnificence and incompetence.

The difference here is that the Brewers’ pitching hasn’t quite been what it was a year ago. One player who’s regressed a bit is Adrian Houser, who owns a 4.55 xERA and gaudy 40.4% Hard-Hit rate. A season after he posted a 3.23 ERA, he’s been slightly worse in just about every category, most notably in xwOBA on contact.

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Phillies-Brewers Pick

The line here would be what we call a trap, but it’s one I’ll gladly walk into. The Phillies are guaranteed to lose at some point, but against a pitcher who has had issues with hard-hit balls and pitches to contact poorly, they should have a very fair shot here.

Nola has been totally legit, and based on a quarter-season’s worth of data, he should have far fewer bad starts than good ones. You can consider me a believer with these insane ratios.

I’ll take the short road dog here.

Pick: Phillies ML (-125)

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