Phillies vs Diamondbacks NLCS Game 3 Odds, Pick | MLB Playoffs Bets, Predictions (Thursday, October 19)
Getty Images. Pictured: Ranger Suarez and Ketel Marte.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Odds | NLCS Game 3
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 9 -115o / -105u | -130 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 9 -115o / -105u | +110 |
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds for Thursday are set with Philadelphia a -132 favorite on the moneyline. Arizona is an underdog at +112.
The total for Thursday's Phillies-Diamondbacks game is set at 9, with -115 juice on the over and -105 juice on the under. On the run line, Phillies -1.5 spread is +122 odds, while Diamondbacks +1.5 is -146.
The Phillies are looking to take a 3-0 series lead in the NLCS at Chase Field in Phoenix, Ari. The Diamondbacks are looking to get back in the series on their home field.
Here is a preview and Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick and prediction for NLCS Game 3 in the MLB playoffs.
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Ranger Suárez has been a reliable arm when called upon by the Phillies. He had a 4.18 ERA against a 4.39 xERA. His Barrel Rate this season was 7.5%, his Average Exit Velocity was 87.8 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate was 36.1%.
Essentially, he induces weak contact, and he keeps the ball on the ground 48.8% of the time. In his two playoff starts this year, he has allowed one earned run over 8 1/3 innings.
The Phils have just been mashing solo homers. They have six batters above a 100 wRC+ in the playoffs. From August 1 through the end of the regular season, they held a 119 wRC+ and .822 OPS off of righties.
Since then, including the playoffs, they have six batters above a .320 xwOBA in the starting lineup. This team is powerful, and Brandon Pfaadt and the Diamondbacks’ relievers will have to find a way to navigate around that.
In relief, the Phils have a 1.09 ERA against a 4.61 xFIP in the playoffs, so regression could come for them in one of these games. That is not sustainable, especially carrying a 10.8% walk rate into this game. In addition, their LOB percentage is over 90%, so this is another variable indicative of regression in the latter innings.
Pfaadt has allowed three earned runs over seven innings in the postseason against the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers. He looked much sharper the second time around.
After he came back from Triple-A after early issues in his debut, he held a 4.22 ERA over 70 1/3 innings. He also only walked 6.2% in total this regular season. Adding on, since his call-up in July, he has an allowed xwOBA of .297 with a .303 allowed OBP. This shows his turnaround is not quite a fluke.
The Snakes have hit the ball well in the playoffs, despite their goose egg on Tuesday. They have five hitters in their starting lineup above a 100 wRC+. From August 1 to the end of the regular season, they held a collective 89 wRC+ and .699 OPS off of lefties.
However, including the postseason, they have seven batters in the lineup above a .320 xwOBA.
In relief, the D-Backs have more or less shown who they are. They have a 3.51 ERA and 4.26 xFIP in the postseason with a 10.8% walk rate. This is pretty close to the Phillies, but expectations are much closer to reality with Arizona stranding 74.4% of runners out of the bullpen.
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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The D'backs should find a little more success at home than they did in raucous Citizens Bank Park, and while Pfaadt isn't a known entity, we can expect them to find more offensive success with Suárez on the mound as opposed to the pair of Phillies aces in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
Take the D'backs on the moneyline at home to make this NLCS more of a series.
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