Phillies vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Alcantara to Continue His Dominance (Friday, July 15)

Phillies vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Alcantara to Continue His Dominance (Friday, July 15) article feature image

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Sandy Alcantara

  • The Phillies fly south to Miami to take on the Marlins.
  • Sandy Alcantara has been dominant this season, and our analyst is expecting more of the same on Friday night.
  • Tony Sartori previews the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds

Phillies Odds+136
Marlins Odds-162
Over/Under7 (-104/-118)
Time6:40 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of this three-game NL East intradivisional series as the Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies. This is the eighth meeting between these two teams this season and it's important to note that the Phillies have scored three or fewer runs in five of the first seven matchups (71%).

Will the Phillies offense be able to find some success this time around, or can the Marlins shut them down once again?

Philadelphia Phillies: Can Phillies Figure Out Alcantara?

The Philadelphia Phillies enter this series in poor form as they have lost four straight games and five of their past eight. Over that eight-game stretch, the Phillies have scored three or fewer runs seven times (88%).

I expect both of these trends to continue as the Phillies are slated to go against right-hander Sandy Alcantara. Since June 1st, the Phillies rank just 25th in the league in BA, 25th in SLG, 26th in OPS and 27th in wOBA when facing right-handers on the road.

Philadelphia has faced Alcantara twice this season, but has had limited success, producing just two runs in each outing. Through 113 career plate appearances against Alcantara, this current Phillies roster possesses a mere .214 BA, .357 SLG, and .294 wOBA.

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Miami Marlins: Will Alcantara Dominate Again?

Right-hander Sandy Alcantara is slated to take the mound for the Miami Marlins. The current favorite to win the NL Cy Young, Alcantara has been a monster this season.

Through 18 starts, Alcantara is 9-3 with a 1.73 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Here comes a "no-duh" statement, but it has been extremely difficult to score runs against Miami's ace as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his past 13 starts.

This same success rings true against Philadelphia, as he has surrendered just two or fewer earned runs in eight of 12 career starts against the Phillies. I do not expect to see any regression from Alcantara as his metrics are just as outstanding as his surface-level stats.

This season, Alcantara boasts a .268 xwOBA, .215 xBA and a .339 xSLG. While Miami's bullpen should cause people to be concerned in general, they will most likely not make a large impact in this game as Alcantara has gone seven or more innings in each of his past 12 starts. He's also thrown two complete games in that span (you could argue he unofficially tossed three complete games in that stretch as he went nine innings against Washington in a game that went 10 frames).

Phillies-Marlins Pick

Until Alcantara proves he is not worth backing, every team he faces is an instant auto-fade. Teams facing Alcantara have scored three or fewer runs in 12 of his past 13 starts (92%).

I would be surprised if Philadelphia is the team to break that trend as they have struggled mightily recently, especially against right-handed pitchers.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies TT u3 (-118) | Play up to (-130)

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