Phillies vs. Mets MLB Picks, Odds: Philadelphia Has Key Advantages (Saturday, May 28)
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper.
- The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Mets in a divisional contest on Saturday night.
- The Phillies are prepared to hit the cover off of the ball against a starter like Taijuan Walker, while Zach Eflin enters in solid form for Philadelphia.
- Nick Shlain dishes out his best bet for Phillies vs. Mets below.
Phillies vs. Mets Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||7:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After winning Friday night’s game over the Phillies, the Mets are 30-17 on the season. New York has the third-best winning percentage in the National League and sits atop the NL East with a 7.5-game lead over the Braves.
The Phillies haven’t lived up to expectations so far this season, as their 21-25 record puts them 8.5 games behind the Mets in the division. However, Philadelphia boasts a positive run differential on the season (+11), so all hope isn’t lost.
It needs to start putting a few more notches in the victory column, though, and who better to do it against than a rival and division leader in the Mets? Can the Phillies get the job done as road underdogs here?
Phillies Can Hit Walker
The Phillies haven’t underperformed due to a lack of offense. Philadelphia sits eighth in all of baseball in runs scored entering Saturday, and it matches up well with Mets starter Taijuan Walker here.
Walker’s ERA stands at 2.70 in six starts this year, but his FIP is 3.71 and his xFIP is 4.69. He has a 14% K% and 7% BB% on the season.
He’s also allowed a .174 ISO to left-handed batters this season, and the Phillies have some solid left-handed power as Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Odubel Herrera each own ISOs above .245 against right-handed pitching this year.
That’s enough for me to give the edge to Philadelphia’s offense here over Walker.
Eflin Enters in Solid Form
The Mets come into play Saturday second in all of baseball in runs scored behind only the Dodgers. New York has a formidable offense, but it’ll be up against a solid opposing pitcher who has been pitching well lately in Zach Eflin.
Eflin has a 3.65 ERA this season. His xFIP sits at 4.04, and he has a 23% K% and 4% BB%. In three of his last four starts, Eflin has completed six innings and allowed two earned runs or fewer. In his last start against the Dodgers at home, Eflin went seven innings and struck out 12 batters.
His only blip in his last four starts, though, came against this same Mets offense in New York on May 1. It’s possible that the Mets just have Eflin’s number, but because of how well he’s pitched against other opponents, I still give him the edge here.
I’m backing the Phillies here.
While the Mets have built up a nice lead for themselves in the division, I still think the Phillies match up well with them. Philadelphia’s bullpen has struggled — including an epic eight-run meltdown against the Mets already this season — but I expect Eflin to pitch deep into the game here to make it easier on the bullpen.
I’m taking the underdog Phillies on the road at +110.
Pick: Phillies ML +110