Phillies vs Nationals Odds, Prediction: Lay the Juice?

Let's dive into the Phillies vs. Nationals odds and make a pick in our MLB betting preview for Saturday, April 6.

The Phillies took full advantage of a soft matchup against Patrick Corbin in Friday's series opener and will hope for more of the same Saturday against Jake Irvin.

Irvin pitched to an ERA of 4.61 last season and had a shaky start to this season Sunday in Cincinnati.

Ranger Suarez will make his second start of the season for the Phillies after a solid outing last week against the Braves, which ended in a no-decision. Suarez put up an ERA of 4.18 in 2023 and is projected to hold comparable results in 2024.

Let's make a Phillies vs. Nationals pick for Saturday's game after taking a look at the MLB odds for April 6.

Suarez was excellent last postseason, pitching to a 1.93 ERA across 18 2/3 innings. Part of that dominance came against the Braves, who were surely happy to get to him for three earned runs on Sunday.

The Braves were the best team in the league against lefties last season, so it's quite fair to say there was still much to like about Suarez's first outing. He allowed only three hits and one walk while striking out seven across five innings.

He was hit hard 30% of the time and owned an xFIP of 1.57.

Importantly, Suarez has outperformed his xERA in each of the last two seasons. Opponents have a ground-ball rate of 60% with runners in scoring position, which has helped his overachievement.

Suarez has also pitched to considerably better splits on the road over the last two seasons, including a 3.20 mark away from Citizens Bank Park in 2023. He has also fared well versus the Nationals, in particular, with an ERA of 3.72 and a record of 6-1.

The Phillies offense has started relatively slow start with a wRC+ of only 84 so far. They've struck out 24.5% of the time and own a hard-hit percentage of 38.5%, which ranks 19th in MLB.

Nick Castellanos has had a particularly concerning start, but it still seems likely the Phillies are going to pay off their preseason expectations offensively in time.

They put up a wRC+ of 104 versus right-handed pitching last season, which was the 10th-best mark in MLB. They should be able to replicate that production this year, especially considering we likely saw a relatively down year from Bryce Harper and Trea Turner.

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Add Irvin to the growing list of pitchers who have struggled in their first regular-season start after putting up strong Spring Training results.

Irvin posted a 3.38 ERA and 4.75 K/BB across 18 2/3 innings in Spring Training but allowed three earned runs on seven hits against Cincinnati in his season debut. He was hit hard 67% of the time, and batters made contact on 88% of his pitches in the strike zone.

Most projection systems expect Irvin to put up an ERA right around 5.00 this season.

In 2023, opponents had a two-strike miss rate of just 17% versus Irvin, which was the third-lowest in the league among pitchers to throw over 60 innings. That stat was an effective indicator of success, considering the top five included Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Spencer Strider and Framber Valdez.

The Nationals are projected to have a bottom-five offense this season, per FanGraphs. They have come out of the gates on pace to smash that projection, with a wRC+ of 102 in 230 PAs so far. A BABIP of .317 certainly helps, but they have hit 41.3% of balls hard thus far, which ranks 10th in MLB.

Their process has been less convincing, though, as they have struck out 24.7% of the time and walked 8.7% of the time.

The Phillies offense hasn't quite clicked into top form to this point, but it should still prove to be inside the league's top third in terms of productivity against right-handed pitching this season.

Irvin's stuff rates out fairly well and the Nationals are hoping for bigger things from him this season, but he's still a hurler the Phillies should hit hard.

Suarez pitched well on Opening Day overall and did well enough to limit the hard contact against a dominant Braves offense. He should offer an edge over Irvin this season and will be backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball.

The Phillies are a large favorite at -170 on the road here, but I still don't think that number is wide enough given the pitching matchup. Anything priced better than -180 is worthy of a bet on Philadelphia in this matchup.

Pick: Phillies ML -170 (Play to -180)