MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Phillies vs. Rockies: Pitching Matchup & Location Create Value on Over (Tuesday, April 19)
Photo by Dustin Bradford//Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Freeland (Rockies)
- After taking the first game of the series, 4-1, the Rockies host Phillies in Game 2 from Coors Field.
- Kyle Freeland will take the bump for the Rockies while the Phillies will send Kyle Gibson to the hill.
- Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup and offers up a best bet.
Phillies vs. Rockies Odds
|Over/Under||12 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Two teams trending in opposite directions meet for Game 2 Wednesday night, as the slumping Philadelphia Phillies look to turn things around against the blistering Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies took home the first game of the series, 4-1, on the back of Chad Kuhl’s six shutout innings. Phillies ace Aaron Nola was tagged with the loss, giving up two runs over 5.1 innings.
Philadelphia turns to veteran Kyle Gibson, who enters off a loss against the Miami Marlins. He will face off against left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has struggled early in 2022.
Can either pitcher get back on track at hitter-friendly Coors Field, or will hitting reign supreme against the duo of Kyles on the mound?
Gibson’s Inconsistency Could Be Problem at Coors Field
The Phillies’ offense has been quite Jekyll & Hyde in the opening weeks of 2022. In losses, they have scored over three runs just once. In wins, they’ve hit that mark every time.
But despite its struggles at the plate, Philadelphia still ranks inside the top-10 in average, wOBA and wRC+.
Losers of six of its last seven, Philadelphia’s lone win came against southpaw Trevor Rogers. It’ll have another chance to get back on track against Freeland on Tuesday.
Last season, the Phillies had more success when facing lefties. That same success has carried over into the early portion of 2022, as they’re hitting .279 and slugging .523 against left-handed pitching. That is opposed to a measly .242 average and .379 slugging percentage versus righties.
Nick Castellanos’ addition to the lineup has been a boost against southpaws, too. He hit .306 and slugged .590 against left-handed pitching in 2021.
Philadelphia will hand the ball to Gibson, who, after dominating in his season debut, gave up four runs over 4.2 innings against the Miami Marlins.
Gibson struggled when acquired by the Phillies at the trade deadline. Over 11 starts, the right-hander posted a 5.09 ERA, a complete 180 from his 2.87 first-half ERA with the Texas Rangers.
Dealing with inconsistency, Gibson isn’t an overpowering pitcher. I’d be cautious with the 34-year-old because of his struggles in the back half of 2021, especially when it comes to pitching in a park like Coors Field.
Can Freeland Turn Things Around at Home?
In what may be one of the early surprising storylines this season, the Colorado Rockies are off to a blistering 7-3 start — including a series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers — after being projected by oddsmakers to finish well below .500.
Much of their success has come from their offense. They rank second in both average and wOBA, and are inside the top 10 in wRC+.
Kris Bryant has transitioned seamlessly in the early going, posting a wRC+ of 117. Other players like Connor Joe (200), C.J. Cron (193) and Elias Diaz (138) have also seen the ball incredibly well, as the Rockies constantly have runners on base. For reference, a wRC+ of 100 is considered average.
It’s inevitable that the offense falls back down to Earth soon enough, but there’s no denying that at this moment in time, the Rockies are seeing the ball as well as any team.
Colorado will look to keep the ball rolling with Freeland, who is still searching for his first win this year. Coors Field has not been kind to the southpaw, who has made both his starts at home this season, surrendering 10 runs on 14 hits over nine innings.
As standard with playing in the altitude, Freeland’s home-road splits are drastically different. Last season, his ERA was a whole run higher at Coors compared to on the road.
Freeland has struggled to limit hard contact in 2022, though it’s been just two starts. Hitters seem to be seeing the 28-year-old well, posting a.263 xBA, .414 xSLG and a hard-hit percentage over 50.
This has been a problem for Freeland because he’s not a strikeout pitcher. His success comes from soft contact and relying on his defense, which has not paid off in the early stages of the season.
To me, this pitching matchup is filled with way too many inconsistencies to back a certain side. While I do lean Philadelphia in this matchup, Gibson has not shown me enough since putting on a Phillies uniform.
He often pitches to contact and that’ll be a problem at a field like Coors. Tack on the fact that he will likely have three minus defenders — Matt Vierling, Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber — behind him in the outfield, and this could be a recipe for disaster.
And I can’t forget to mention Alec Bohm and his defensive woes at third base.
On the other side, Freeland has shown no signs of success in his two starts this season. The left-hander doesn’t have the capabilities to shut down strikeout-prone players like Bryce Harper and the aforementioned Castellanos and Schwarber.
He draws a Phillies lineup that — in a season filled with inconsistencies on the offensive end — has still hit left-handed pitching well.
Yes, the number is high, but it’s consistent with how Coors Field plays. I think we see plenty of offense in this matchup, as the Phillies get things going early against Freeland, leading to a long bullpen game for the Rockies.
Tack on Gibson’s mixed success and the Rockies swinging a hot bat at this point in time, and I like the over in this matchup.
Back the over in what should be a fun game with a lot of offense and minimal pitching success.
Pick: Over 11 (up to -120)