Pirates vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, June 22

Pirates vs Marlins Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, June 22 article feature image

Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Mitch Keller

Pirates vs. Marlins Odds

Thursday, June 22
6:40 p.m. ET
Pirates Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-116 / -104
Marlins Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-116 / -104
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to snap a nine-game losing skid Thursday with Mitch Keller on the mound. Keller has been terrorized of late, allowing 20 ER over his last five outings.

He will face off against Braxton Garrett, who has allowed just one ER over his last two starts with 17 strikeouts. The Marlins have moved all the way to -160 to win this matchup after opening as modest favorites.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Keller's promising start to the season has gone out the window recently with what has been a disastrous run of play. He has pitched to an ERA of 6.14 over his last five outings.

His stark drop-off in results appears to be coming with some horrendous luck, though, and it does seem Keller should stabilize toward more average results. Only one of those five outings came with an xFIP greater than 4.14, and the average xFIP from his five awful outings was 4.11.

Keller's stuff is still rating close to what it was throughout his dominant start to the season, which is encouraging. Perhaps batters have made some adjustments, but the key reason Keller has fared so much worse of late is simply a higher than expected BABIP.

His season xERA is still 3.44, and his xFIP at 3.31. Both his Stuff+ and Location+ marks remain well better than average. Maybe Keller will not dominate like we saw early on, but it is unlikely he will continue to be dominated like we have seen of late.

The Pirates' offensive play has been downright comical over their nine-game losing streak with a wRC+ of 52. That has come with the lowest BABIP in the league by a significant margin, however, at .212. Their BB/K of 0.42 is middle of the pack and encourages a solid process at the plate.

They have been drastically better versus left-handed pitching this season with a 107 wRC+, which ranks 12th in the league.

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Miami Marlins

At the other end of the spectrum is Garrett, who is in the midst of the best run of his young career. Garrett has pitched to an ERA of 2.45 over his last seven starts, with a WHIP of 1.00.

Expected rates versus Garrett have plummeted over that span, and his K-rate is up drastically. He is clearly pitching far better than he was at the start of the year and is not just entirely running with some favorable luck.

Garrett's stuff still suggests such dominance is unlikely to continue. His Stuff+ comes in well below average at 88. Sequencing and location mean a great deal, but the quality of his stuff should make avoiding bats and generating strikeouts at the level we have seen recently unsustainable.

Miami has hit to a wRC+ of 93 this season versus right-handed pitching.

Pirates vs. Marlins Betting Pick

This sets up as a great time to buy low on Keller and the Pirates. Keller is going through his worst stretch of the season, but there is nothing overly palpable in terms of causation that states he will continue finding such bad results from this point on.

Garrett is at the opposite end of things right now, being in the midst of the best run of his career. He is clearly figuring some things out about pitching at the big league level, but continued dominance of this nature seems unlikely.

It seems reasonable to make the case that Keller is at least even with Garrett in a wider scope of things. The Pirates' offense might be ice cold, but it has been better in these particular splits than Miami.

Pittsburgh's price of +115 to win the first five innings is too long, and I would bet the Pirates down to +100 to win the first five.

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