Pirates vs Marlins Prediction, Pick | MLB Opening Day Odds

Here's everything you need to know about Pirates vs Marlins on Thursday, March 28 — including odds and a prediction.

The latest Pirates vs Marlins odds for MLB Opening Day have the Pirates as +110 underdogs on the moneyline, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs.

This is arguably my favorite pitching matchup of opening day. I will always hold out hope for Mitch Keller, while Jesus Luzardo is a stud southpaw with Cy Young Award-level upside.

Here's my Pirates vs Marlins prediction on the moneyline.

The Pirates have a lot going for them.

The lineup has a cresting superstar in Oneil Cruz, alongside potential three-win players in Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jack Suwinski (albeit at the upper end of their projections). I also think the Pirates should get the most out of Henry Davis.

The top of the order looks somewhat promising.

As does the relief corps, anchored by stud David Bednar and solid setup man Colin Holderman. Additionally, projections are bullish on Dauri Moreta, Ryan Borucki and Carmen Mlodzinski. ZiPS projects the Buccos' bullpen for 4.0 fWAR in 2024, putting them right around the MLB average – that’s good for Pittsburgh!

Unfortunately, the rest of the roster is shaky.

I don’t feel great about Andrew McCutchen at DH, as he’s projected to be around a league-average hitter in 2024. Secondary players like Jared Triolo and Michael A. Taylor don’t induce much confidence.

Of more importance, the rotation could be in trouble before Paul Skenes is called up. There are also three southpaws in the current five-man rotation, including a replacement-level starter in Bailey Falter.

But that won’t matter on Opening Day.

Starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (RHP)

Last season, Keller found actual velocity on his fastball, added a cutter and replaced his slider with a sweeper.

Everything added up to his best season yet. He figured out his control issues, significantly cutting down his walk rate. The extra velocity and nasty sweeping slider (142 Stuff+) significantly upped his strikeout rate. He could attack the zone and pump out more innings, almost hitting the 200 mark.

He did hit the 200-strikeout mark.

His batted-ball profile still isn’t perfect, but it’s passable.

He really needs to lean into his breaking balls and command, but Keller is on the up and up.

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The Fish look like an easy sell-high team. They overperformed their Pythagorean record by nine games after posting a 33-14 (70%) record in one-run games.

They also lost their ace to Tommy John and their best power hitter to the Giants.

Miami doesn’t have much high-end offensive talent. We can’t expect Luis Arraez to maintain a .350 batting average. I’m unsure if Jazz Chisholm Jr. can ever stay healthy, and he’s a little too free-swinging to be a consistent middle-of-the-order bat. While Josh Bell is a great southpaw power hitter, I expect Jake Burger to regress after smashing 34 dingers in 2023.

Meanwhile, the bottom of the order looks a little rough. I’m hoping Xavier Edwards or Jacob Amaya will break out.

But the Marlins arguably have a top-10 bullpen. Several relievers broke out last season, including Tanner Scott, AJ Puk (now in the rotation) and Andrew Nardi. They ranked sixth in FanGraphs’ reliever clutch metric last season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the same.

The rotation is arguably a top-10 unit, too, even without Sandy Alcantara, given that the high-upside youngsters live up to their potential.

Starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo (LHP)

Luzardo has nasty stuff.

His 97-mph heater earns huge whiff and chase numbers, so he relentlessly pounded the top of the zone with it. As he got ahead in counts, he forced even more whiffs and chases with his dangerous sliders and changeups.

Luzardo finished 2023 with a 28% strikeout rate and a 15% swinging-strike rate, two monster marks.

He’s rounded into a polished pitcher who can pile up innings with the league’s elite. He tossed 180 last year with a 3.58 ERA and 3.7 fWAR.

The Fish were great against southpaw pitchers in 2023, racking up a 103 wRC+.

But against righties, they faltered, posting a 91 wRC+.

They also struggled against Keller’s three-fastball mix (four-seam, cutter, sinker), posting a combined -26.7 weighted run value against the three pitches.

So, predictably, Keller faced these Marlins in loanDepot in June of last year and pitched seven near-perfect innings, allowing one run on five hits with five strikeouts and no walks.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s lineup performs similarly against both sides, although I’d imagine the Pirates profile better against lefties, given they project to have seven righties in the Opening Day lineup.

Luzardo is vulnerable to platoon splits, posting a .320 wOBA allowed against right-handed hitters compared to a .263 against lefties. His strikeout rate drops 5% and walk rate jumps 4% against righties compared to lefties.

Luzardo is undoubtedly the better pitcher than Keller, but I think it’s closer than many think, and the latter has the better matchup on Opening Day.

Meanwhile, I’m not overly high on Miami’s lineup compared to Pittsburgh’s, as I think both have similar issues across all nine spots.

ZiPS projects these two bullpens with very similar overall marks, even though I give the Fish a slight relief advantage.

Ultimately, I would project this game very close to +100 on both sides. I think it’s a true coin flip.

So, I’ll happily take the plus-money with Keller and the Buccos. The Marlins are due for some extra losses this year, anyway.

Raise It.

Pick: Pirates +115 | Play to +110