The Atlanta Braves host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 26, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSO.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Braves Prediction
- Pirates vs Braves pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
My Pirates vs Braves best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Braves Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -165 |
Pirates vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) | Stat | LHP Joey Wentz (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-15 | W-L | 5-6 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.22 / 4.31 | ERA / xERA | 5.46 /4.36 |
| 3.95 / 4.14 | FIP / xFIP | 3.97 / 4.45 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.52 |
| 13.4 | K-BB% | 11.4 |
| 43.7 | GB% | 38.2 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 99 | Location+ | 106 |
Pirates vs Braves Preview, Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm never shy about fading the Pittsburgh offense. That's been particularly so against left-handed pitching.
The Pirates have the second-worst offense across the board, and they are eight points worse against lefties than righties by wRC+.
Joey Wentz has been pretty solid since joining the Atlanta rotation, missing a lot more bats. I also considered taking his strikeouts prop today. I was hoping for a 4.5 line there, but it's 5.5, so I'll just look at the under for the full game total.
The Pirates starter, Mitch Keller, is about to finish his third straight year with an ERA in the range of 4.20, and between 175 to 190 innings. He's just a very average starting pitcher. All the questions about whether Keller is good that we dealt with for what feels like a decade have been settled. And the answer is "kind of".
Atlanta's bullpen actually hasn't been that bad down the stretch here, which is funny since it's one of the things that sunk them so bad earlier this season.
This is also the top edge, according to Action PRO projections. So I really like getting Under 8.5 here.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105, bet365)
Pirates vs Braves Betting Trends
