The Boston Red Sox host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 31, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Pirates surprisingly took the first two games of this series and will look for the sweep today.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Pirates vs Red Sox Prediction
- Pirates vs Red Sox pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
My Pirates vs Red Sox best bet is Under 8.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Red Sox Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +145 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -175 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) | Stat | RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-12 | W-L | 9-2 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 4.35 / 4.28 | ERA / xERA | 3.47 / 4.99 |
| 3.77 / 4.16 | FIP / xFIP | 4.18 / 4.36 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 12.7 | K-BB% | 12.3 |
| 43.8 | GB% | 37.3 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 99 | Location+ | 101 |
Pirates vs Red Sox Preview
The Red Sox offense is going through a slump, producing just 22 runs in their last seven games for a 3.14 average.
They will face Mitch Keller, who is coming off a quality start against the Cardinals, giving up three hits and three earned runs while striking out nine batters.
The Pirates, although they have won the first two games of this series, are not really an elite offense. They rank next-to-last in wRC+ this season with an 83 rating, and are dead last in slugging (.353) and ISO (.118).
Lucas Giolito will get the ball for Boston, and he's had an outstanding season. He's coming off a terrific performance versus the Orioles, pitching eight scoreless innings, with four hits allowed and eight strikeouts.
Our Bet Labs system also has a weather angle that points toward the under as the best choice for today.
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity —ranging from 45 to 95— intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, between 6 and 29.
These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100, BetMGM)
Pirates vs Red Sox Betting Trends
