The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 12, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
NL Central rivals Pittsburgh and Chicago will open up a four-game weekend series on Thursday with Andrew Heaney (3.24 ERA, 72 1/3 IP) set to take on Jameson Taillon (3.54 ERA, 76 1/3 IP).
This will be the second series of the season between the two sides, with the Cubs having won the first at PNC Park.
My Pirates vs Cubs Prediction
- Pirates vs Cubs pick: Cubs -1.5 (+105, BetMGM) | Play to -102
My Pirates vs Cubs best bet is on the Cubs spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cubs Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +165 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -200 |
Pirates vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT) | Stat | RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 6-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.24/4.70 | ERA /xERA | 3.54/3.76 |
| 4.38/4.28 | FIP / xFIP | 4.83/4.02 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 0.97 |
| 9.4 | K-BB% | 14.6 |
| 41.4 | GB% | 36.3 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 102 | Location+ | 110 |
Nick Martin’s Pirates vs Cubs Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview, Analysis
Despite Jared Jones' absence, the Pirates' starting rotation has been their greatest strength this season, with a seventh-ranked 3.58 ERA.
Heaney's surprisingly excellent start to the year has been a big part of the rotation's success. He's already pitched 72 1/3 innings and has a 3.24 ERA.
Heaney held a 4.28 ERA with a 4.55 xERA in 2024 and a 4.28 ERA and 4.46 xERA in 2023. Based on those marks, his start to the year comes as a surprise, but the underlying metrics suggest he may not be pitching at that much greater of a level.
He holds a 4.70 xERA and 4.28 xFIP this season and a career-worst K-BB% of 9.4. He also has a career-worst Stuff+ rating of 93 and a Pitching+ rating of 93.
The Pirates' offense has continued to struggle over the last 30 days, with a wRC+ of 91 and a 27th-ranked slug rate.
They rank 21st in expected slugging rate this season and have struck out 23.6% of the time. Pittsburgh has also struggled to hit right-handed pitching, with a 27th-ranked wRC+ of 87.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview, Analysis
The Cubs will face Heaney for the second time this season and were able to hit him well in their previous matchup, earning four runs across 4 2/3 innings.
It's no surprise that one of Heaney's worst outings of the year came versus the Cubs, as they've been one of the best offenses in baseball in 2025.
Chicago ranks third in wRC+ this season and fourth in OPS. It ranks fourth in xSLG rate, fifth in BB/K ratio and seventh in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching.
Miguel Amaya remains the only position player on the IL, but catchers Carson Kelly and Reese McGuire have had strong starts to the year.
After finishing with a 3.27 ERA in 2024, Taillon has gotten off to a comparably strong start, with a 3.54 and 3.76 xERA.
His 4.02 xFIP is a slight year-over-year improvement, as is his K-BB% of 14.6. His Pitching+ rating is also up considerably compared to last season, currently sitting at +110.
Pirates vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
Even at a price of -205, oddsmakers don't seem to give the division-leading Cubs enough credit in this matchup.
They feature a deep lineup headlined by several elite talents.
The Cubs should be able to have a productive day once again versus Heaney. They hit him well in their previous matchup, and he appears to be a strong candidate for negative regression.
All of Taillon's underlying metrics have improved compared to last season, and he should have a good chance of authoring another strong start versus the Pirates' lethargic offense.
There's value in backing the Cubs to cover the run line at +105 in this matchup, and I would bet it down to -102.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+105, BetMGM) | Play to -102
Moneyline
There's value backing the Cubs to win at -205, but I would prefer to take the longer number to back the run line.
Run Line (Spread)
As outlined, backing the Cubs to cover the run line is my favorite play from this matchup.
Over/Under
A total of 7.5 looks fair given this starting pitching matchup, as Wrigley Field is expected to have moderate winds blowing in from center.
