The Washington Nationals host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 4, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 11:05 a.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Pirates are -164 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are +138 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction
- Pirates vs Nationals Pick: Pirates ML (-180 or Better)
My Pirates vs Nationals best bet is on Pittsburgh. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Nationals Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 10 -100o / -122u | -164 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 10 -100o / -122u | +138 |
- Pirates vs Nationals moneyline: Pirates -164, Nationals +138
- Pirates vs Nationals over/under: 10 (-100 / -122)
- Pirates vs Nationals spread: Pirates -1.5 (-104), Nationals +1.5 (-115)
Pirates vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| Braxton Ashcraft (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Zack Littell (RHP, WSN) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-3 | W-L | 7-6 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.9 |
| 3.33 / 3.06 | ERA / xERA | 5.29 / 6.77 |
| 3.11 / 3.16 | FIP / xFIP | 6.47 / 5.35 |
| 22.1% | K-BB% | 6.9% |
| 44.8% | GB% | 33.5% |
| .295 | BABIP | .244 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 106 | Location+ | 101 |
Pirates vs Nationals MLB Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
The Pirates will have their ace on the mound to celebrate the 4th of July on Saturday.
That’s right, it’s Braxton Ashcraft who has been the Buccos’ most reliable arm this season. He leads the team in wins (eight), innings pitched (102 ⅔), and ERA (3.33) this season
Between injury issues in the minor leagues and the other names in this rotation, Ashcraft did not receive the hype of some of his teammates, but has been brilliant over two seasons with the Pirates. He posted a 2.71 ERA working mostly out of the bullpen last year and then has been equally as good in the rotation.
Ashcraft pairs a 97-MPH fastball with one of the sport’s best curveballs — opponents are hitting just .149 against the curve this year with a ridiculous 49% strikeout rate. Chicago’s Ben Brown is the only pitcher with a higher Run Value on his curveball this season.
How much money would you have right now if, before the season, you bet that the Pirates and Nationals would both be in the top three in runs scored in July?
Thanks to some key offseason moves, Pittsburgh sits third in scoring and ranks second only behind the Dodgers in team OPS.
Newcomers Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn have both been tremendous additions, but this lineup has been impressive top-to-bottom. Bryan Reynolds has returned to All-Star form, Oneil Cruz has been more consistent, Nick Gonzales and Jake Mangum are both hitting over .300 on the year, and rookie sensation Konnor Griffin looks every bit the part.
Pretty much every single bat in the lineup is overperforming preseason expectations.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
Zack Littell has had a really interesting career.
He was terrific as a reliever before Tampa converted him to a starter. At times, he flashed some high potential.
But this season, he’s been a disaster, with a 5.29 ERA and 22 home runs allowed, the second-most of any MLB pitcher.
Hitters are teeing off on Littell’s fastball to the tune of a .314 average and .662 slugging. Plus, his other pitches haven’t been much better. He sits among the bottom 10% of qualified pitchers in nearly every category this season.
Littell has never really been a strikeout guy, which gives him little margin for error. But things have entered nightmare territory now that his command has started to slip.
Luckily, like most of the National pitchers, Littell has been saved (at times) this season by the Washington lineup.
The Nats have exploded out of nowhere to lead MLB in runs scored, averaging over 5.3 per game this season.
The success of this offense has largely been a combination of a more modern approach at the plate and a shift in philosophy toward ideal hitting splits and deeper bench usage, as well as the breakouts of three young stars.
Washington’s core of James Wood, CJ Abrams, and Luis Garcia have all been terrific this season, and even Dylan Crews is showing signs of promise over the last few weeks.
The success of this Nationals offense has been one of the most surprising stories of the season.
Pirates vs Nationals Pick, Betting Analysis
We could see some “bombs bursting in air” on this 4th of July, as I expect Littell to continue serving up home runs. He has one of the league’s worst fastballs, resulting in a 6.74 xERA.
If you are looking for red, white, and blue on this holiday, you can get it by visiting the Baseball Savant page of these two starters. Littell’s is all blue, and Ashcraft’s is all red.
Ashcraft ranks among the top 10% of qualified pitchers in chase rate and walk rate.
That is an elite combination that allows him to work outside the strike zone, racking up strikeouts while avoiding walks.
These two offenses have been surprise stories of the first half. But while the Nats have bigger guns at the top of the order, the Pirates have more depth.
That depth hits fastballs better than any team in baseball. Meanwhile, the Nats rank just 19th in weighted curveball runs created this season, and that number won’t improve against Ashcraft.
Pittsburgh’s biggest issue is its bullpen. The Pirates rank 23rd among MLB teams in reliever ERA and 22nd in reliever WHIP. But that’s neutralized by Washington’s equally sketchy relief corps. While the Pirates have blown 16 saves this season, Washington leads the league with 25.
In this matchup, the Pirates have a significant starting pitching advantage, a slight bullpen advantage, and an equal offense.
All this to say, we are riding with the Buccos to wave the black and white flag on this 4th of July.
Pick: Pirates ML (-180 or Better)
