PropBetGuy’s Friday MLB Player Prop: How to Fade Brewers’ Eric Lauer in a Crucial NL Central Matchup (August 12)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Eric Lauer #52 of the Milwaukee Brewers.
- The Cardinals host the Brewers in a pivotal NL Central clash on Friday night.
- Our analyst is fading Eric Lauer in this matchup as the Cardinals have hammered lefties lately.
- Check out PropBetGuy's pick and analysis below.
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Eric Lauer Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100)
|Prop||Lauer Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100)|
|Matchup||Brewers vs. Cardinals|
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
We’ve reached the part of the MLB season where teams kick it into high gear for their playoff runs. This should be especially true for the Brewers and Cardinals, who not only are virtually tied atop the NL Central but have also split their 12 matchups as they enter their weekend series.
Eric Lauer takes the bump for the Brewers, and I like the under on his pitching outs line tonight. The lefty has struggled a bit on the road, pitching to a 4.47 ERA and a 4.56 xFIP.
Lauer also registers 4.16 pitches per plate appearances in away games – a number that would rank as the seventh-highest among 111 qualified starting pitchers. This has led to him staying under this line in seven of 11 road outings.
The Cardinals have the second-highest team OPS and wRC+ vs lefties over the last two months, at .853 and 139, respectively. They are a top-nine team in wRC against Lauer’s top three pitches: the four-seam fastball, slider and curveball. They’ve also had success against the southpaw this season with seven runs scored in 11 innings against him.
With these two teams duking it out for divisional supremacy, I expect both managers to tighten their leashes a bit. Lauer already struggles the third time through the batting order, allowing a .925 OPS. Tonight, I have the Cardinals chasing him after five innings.
Pick: Eric Lauer Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100) | Playable to (-125)
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