Rangers vs Astros Odds, Pick Today: ALCS Game 6 Prediction for MLB Playoffs (Sunday, October 22)
Getty Images. Pictured: Nathan Eovaldi and Jose Altuve.
Rangers vs. Astros Game 6 Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +108 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -126 |
Rangers vs Astros odds for ALCS Game 6 see Houston as a short -126 favorite on the moneyline at home to advance to the World Series. The Rangers, who are trying to force a Game 7, are +108 moneyline underdogs.
The total in this game has been set at 8.5, juiced at -115 to the over and -105 to the under with Nathan Eovaldi on the mound for the Rangers and Framber Valdez toeing the rubber for the Astros.
On the run line, a -1.5 spread for the Astros is +162, while at +1.5, the Rangers are -194.
Here is a betting pick and preview for Rangers vs. Astros ALCS Game 6 on Sunday, October 22.
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I like the Rangers' matchup against Houston starting pitcher Framber Valdez.
They’ve crushed left-handed pitching all season, ranking fifth in wRC+ against the side (115). They’ve fared similarly well against sinkers, posting a top-five OPS against the pitch (.848).
Valdez is your prototypical southpaw sinkerballer, throwing the pitch about half the time. He’s throwing a curveball-changeup-cutter mix the other half of the time.
The Rangers got to Valdez in Game 2, putting up five runs on seven hits and a walk, although only four were earned. Still, they smacked five balls with exit velocities over 95 mph, three going for singles and one for a homer (Jonah Heim).
Valdez has been lackluster for a while. He posted a 4.66 ERA across his final 15 regular-season starts, and he’s allowed a 46% hard-hit rate across his two postseason starts.
Conversely, I’m unsure if anybody, including these Astros, can hit Nathan Eovaldi in the playoffs.
The Astros are crushing the ball, sporting a .212 ISO in these playoffs behind Yordan Alvarez’s six homers. Every major Houston batter is back in rhythm, from Jose Altuve to Jeremy Peña.
But Eovaldi now has a 2.87 ERA in 62 ⅔ postseason innings. He’s allowed five earned runs across 19 ⅔ innings and three starts in these playoffs, striking out 24, walking only one and earning three wins.
He’s topping out at 96 mph on the fastball and sports a 114 Stuff+ mark on his splitter. The latter pitch has accounted for 10 of his aforementioned 24 strikeouts.
Most impressively, Eovaldi boasts a 110 Location+ rating during these playoffs, the highest among postseason starting pitchers. He’s not walking anybody, but he’s also painting corners.
Eovaldi hasn’t pitched well against the Astros in his career, with Altuve (10-for-29 with seven extra-base hits) and Alvarez (5-for-7 with two extra-base hits) crushing the righty in the past.
That said, Eovaldi shoved the Astros in a locker in Game 2. I think he does it again.
Rangers vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
Houston has a clear bullpen advantage. The Astros boast a 2.19 ERA and a 113 Stuff+ rating during this playoff run, while Texas checks in at 4.12 and 105. The Rangers have been the worst bullpen in these playoffs by Stuff+, FIP (5.31) and strikeout minus walk rate (6.7%).
That played to the Astros' advantage in the monumental Game 5, with de-facto closer Jose Leclerc allowing a single to Yanier Diaz and walking Jon Singleton to get to Altuve, who ranks second all-time in postseason home runs. Talk about a disaster.
With Saturday’s day off, both bullpens should be mostly rested and available in Game 6.
But I expect Valdez to continue struggling in a tough matchup, and I expect Eovaldi to continue shoving under the brightest of lights and in the toughest of situations. He’s just better under pressure.
And let’s not forget that the Rangers are crushing the ball at a similar clip to the Astros. Texas is the only lineup with as many barrels as Houston this postseason (34), and the Rangers boast the higher walk rate (10% to 8.4%).
So, with all this in mind, I’m taking Texas in the first half.
I suspect Texas jumps on Valdez early while Nasty Nate shoves. The Rangers' bats should come out hot following an embarrassing loss and with their season on the line.
We’re getting tremendous value on that line at plus money, too. Texas should probably be F5 favorites in Game 6.
Unfortunately for Rangers fans, you can’t trust their back-end pitching depth. I’m avoiding that mess altogether in this wager.
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