Rangers vs Giants Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Friday, August 11
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Rangers vs. Giants Odds
The Texas Rangers had an eight-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Oakland A's on Wednesday, and they'll stay in the Bay Area as they attempt to keep the good times rolling against the San Francisco Giants.
Can Jon Gray turn his luck around and lead Texas to victory?
Let's break it down in our Rangers vs. Giants preview and prediction.
Jon Gray has embraced the fly ball in 2023, watching as his ground ball rate dipped to the second-lowest point of his career as his fly ball rate reaches a career high at 26.2%. It's hardly one of the largest numbers in the league, but with the Rangers' outfield ranking 12th in Outs Above Average it's made some sense that he's chosen to pitch to more contact and embrace air outs.
Gray's whiff rate has remained level over the past three seasons, yet his strikeout rate has dropped five points to 20.3%, which is the second-lowest of his career. He's pitched to more fly balls and struck out fewer batters, and with a .264 xBA it's no surprise his expected ERA stands at 4.46. Still, against the right teams Gray has been very effective.
In terms of this Rangers offense, things have picked up with the return of Corey Seager. Since his return on August 2, the Rangers rank second in wRC+ and have hit .271 with a .271 ISO.
That's no typo — the Rangers have clubbed 16 homers in eight games. The team's struck out a bit more, but with the influx of power and a solid 10.6% walk rate you'll take it.
The Giants will take a different approach here, trotting out Scott Alexander as the opener for a second time in four days.
While you may think a reliever beginning the game and pitching a maximum of two innings has little impact on the result, Alexander's previous stint as the opener is proof that it can certainly matter. On Tuesday, he allowed three runs on three hits against the Angels and failed to record an out in what amounted to a 7-5 loss.
San Francisco has had varying levels of success leaning on a few long relievers to eat innings, and with both Sean Manaea and Tristan Beck working on Wednesday it'll likely be Jakob Junis and Alex Wood to follow Alexander.
The two combined to throw seven innings behind Alexander in Tuesday's loss, allowing three runs on seven hits. That's a pretty solid performance, and given Junis's solid peripherals and great results this year it's fair to expect him to shove once again. It's a bit tricker with Wood, who has walked 11% of the batters he's faced and owns a 5.13 xERA.
Rangers vs. Giants
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Rangers have absolutely mashed lefties to the tune of a 129 wRC+ this season, which ranks second in baseball. Seager has been one of the best in that split with a .993 OPS, so having him back is only going to solidify the Rangers' performance in this split.
Between Alexander and a struggling Wood, this really doesn't break very well for the Giants. On top of that, this offense owns a 72 wRC+ in the last two weeks with a meek .101 ISO, which should comfort a fly ball pitcher in Gray. Playing in a pitcher's park, the likelihood of Gray getting lit up here is very slim.
The Rangers have a number of discernable edges in this one and I think they deserve to be favored.
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