We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Iowa Cubs @ Gwinnett Stripers
Tuesday, 6:35 PM ET
Iowa has a huge offensive edge in this matchup. So, as long as the Cubs aren’t at a huge pitching disadvantage, I’d bet the Cubs at anything close to even money.
That situation will present itself in at least a few games this week.
Gwinnett has the edge with Herick Hernandez on Tuesday, and we could see him pitch again on Sunday. We also might get a rehab start for Hurston Waldrep. Gwinnett should also have Ronald Acuna and Ha-Seong Kim for a few rehab appearances this week.
Still, Gwinnett will have to throw out a lesser starter at some point this week, and that’ll be the time to bet the Cubs.
Jonathan Long is red-hot after a slow start, which is huge, given he was one of the best hitters at the Triple-A level last season. You have to wonder if Moises Ballesteros is next, as he was also awesome at the Triple-A level last year but has been slumping this season. Iowa also has guys like James Triantos, Brett Bateman, and BJ Murray, who have all been productive all season. Owen Ayers was recently promoted, and he’s been hitting in the middle of the order, which gives an already-awesome lineup more upside.
I’m confident Iowa will hit any pitching it sees this week. Hopefully, we get a spot where the Cubs are starting a decent pitcher and/or have their top bullpen arms available.
Pick: Iowa ML (-105, bet365)
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp @ Worcester Red Sox
Tuesday, 6:45 PM ET
Jacksonville had a tough weekend, getting swept in Rochester. But, I think the Jumbo Shrimp bounce back in Worcester this week.
Jacksonville’s lineup should be much better than it has been, as Augustin Ramirez, Connor Norby, and Devysian De Los Santos are all MLB-level talents if they were just playing better. Graham Pauley, Jacob Berry, and Kemp Alderman have always been productive at this level.
I refuse to believe that all these guys will stay cold for this long, and Cam Cannarella should help a ton after getting called up from Double-A to hit leadoff.
This should be one of the best offenses at the Triple-A level.
But even if the Shrimp are still slumping, they can still win with their pitching. Jacksonville has one of the best staffs at the Triple-A level, and it should shine this week against a dreadful Worcester lineup.
The WooSox have the weakest roster in the International League at the moment, which makes their 45-46 record incredible. They’re scrappy and can steal games, but they struggle at talent disparities — that’s what we have here.
I’m expecting a big week for Jacksonville.
Pick: Jacksonville ML (-125, bet365)
Oklahoma City Comets @ Sacramento River Cats
Tuesday, 9:45 PM ET
I faded Oklahoma City last week against Tacoma, and I’m doubling down this week.
The Giants have called up the rest of their studs from the Double-A level, and the River Cats are once again loaded with talent. That’s significant because when these guys were in Richmond to start the season, the Flying Squirrels were 20 games over .500 at the Double-A level.
Now that the core is back in Sacramento, I expect the Cats to have a big week against Oklahoma City.
The key here is pitching. Both teams have excellent lineups, but Sacramento has the better staff.
The River Cats have several elite arms, including Carson Whisenhunt, Matt Wilkinson, Blade Tidwell, Cesar Perdomo, Carson Seymour, and Tristan Beck. They also have some great bullpen options like Braxton Roxby and Reiver Sanmartin.
Sacramento has an incredible collection of pitchers at this level, and I think that will be the difference in what will be one of the better series at the Triple-A level this week.
Pick: Sacramento ML (-120, bet365)
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Iowa Cubs ML (@ Gwinnett, 6:35 PM ET)
- Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (@ Worcester, 6:45 PM ET)
- Sacramento River Cats ML (vs Oklahoma City, 9:45 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A Baseball
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
