Rangers vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Offenses Should Struggled Against Jon Gray, Pablo Lopez (Thursday, July 21)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Jon Gray
Rangers vs. Marlins Odds
|Time||1:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
We return from the All-Star break this afternoon as the NL East‘s Miami Marlins host the AL West‘s Texas Rangers. Both teams are looking to snap their losing streaks as the Rangers have lost four straight games while the Marlins have dropped three straight.
The total for this matchup is set at seven, is this too low? Or can both of the starting pitchers keep the scoring down in this contest?
Gray Has Been Dominant For Rangers
Right-hander Jon Gray is slated to take the mound for the Texas Rangers in this matchup. Through 16 starts this season, Gray is 6-4 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
Gray’s metrics are even stronger this year as he boasts a .295 xwOBA, .230 xBA and .372 xSLG. Recently, Gray has been dominant on the mound.
Over his last seven starts, Gray is 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA and 53 strikeouts. This stretch was capped off with a seven-inning shutout performance against the Athletics in which Gray allowed just one hit and racked up nine strikeouts.
There have been seven or fewer total runs scored in four of those seven games (57%). While Gray has not faced the Marlins since he was with Colorado in the National League, he was lights out against them.
Over his last three starts against the Marlins, Gray is 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 29 strikeouts. There were seven or fewer total runs scored in two of those three outings (67%).
I am not too worried about the Rangers’ bullpen blowing this game as they have been above-average recently. Since June 1st, the Rangers’ relief pitching ranks 14th in the league in ERA, 14th in BA, 11th in SLG and 11th in wOBA.
However, this pitching staff may not get too much run support as the Rangers are slated to go against right-hander Pablo Lopez. Through 22 career plate appearances against Lopez, this current Rangers roster possesses a mere .200 BA, .250 SLG and .217 wOBA.
When facing right-handed pitchers since the beginning of June, the Rangers rank just 19th in the league in BA, 18th in SLG, 21st in OPS, and 24th in wOBA.
Marlins’ Offense May Struggle
The Miami Marlins have been involved in many low-scoring contests recently as there have been seven or fewer total runs scored in 10 of their last 14 games (71%). I expect this trend to continue with Lopez on the mound.
Through 18 starts this season, Lopez is 6-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Lopez also boasts strong metrics this year as he possesses a .306 xwOBA, .241 xBA, and .379 xSLG.
Recently, Lopez has been in particularly good form. Over his last five starts, Lopez is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 24 strikeouts.
However, Lopez may not get much run support against Gray. Through 42 career plate appearances against Gray, this current Marlins roster possesses a mere .231 BA, .256 SLG and .246 wOBA.
Since June 1st, the Marlins rank just 20th in the league in BA, 21st in SLG, 26th in OPS and 26th in wOBA when facing right-handed pitchers.
Both of these starting pitchers enter this game in great form, and I expect that to continue against two poor lineups. Additionally, this game may feature a slow start with it being their first day back from the extended break.
This line originally opened at 6.5 and has since jumped up to seven with more tickets and the money on the over. That being said, I think there is value to be had at seven but I would not take the under if the line drops back down to 6.5.
Pick: Rangers/Marlins u7 (-115) | Play up to (-125)