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Rays vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Trust Tampa Ace Shane McClanahan on the Road (Tuesday, July 26)

Rays vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Trust Tampa Ace Shane McClanahan on the Road (Tuesday, July 26) article feature image
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Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Shane McClanahan (Rays)

  • The Rays will take on the streaking Orioles on Tuesday in game two of a four-game AL East clash.
  • Shane McClanahan, the betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award, is taking his league-best 1.71 ERA to the hill.
  • Mike Ianniello explains why there's no choice but to back McClanahan and the Rays with this bet below.

Rays vs. Orioles Odds

Rays Odds -205
Orioles Odds +175
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Baltimore finished June with a 14-12 record, marking the club’s first winning month since August 2017.

Well, the Orioles already made it two months in a row, as they’re sitting at 13-6 in July with six games left in the month.

They already took game one of a four-game set against Tampa Bay, which has now lost three straight games.

What’s Wrong With Rays’ Offense?

Shane McClanahan will make his first appearance after earning the right to the start the All-Star Game for the American League. He’s currently the betting favorite for the AL Cy Young Award and has dominated opponents to a league-best 1.71 ERA.

McClanahan’s 2.29 xERA is also best in the league, and his 11.95 K/9 rate is the second-best mark. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in 13 straight starts. His curveball has been the best in baseball this season.

Tampa Bay’s offense has actually regressed a bit this season. The unit ranks just 23rd in wOBA and 13th in wRC+, and superstar Wander Franco has a wRC+ of just 103.


Orioles Throwing Inexperienced Starter

McClanahan will actually be the more experienced starter on Tuesday, as Spenser Watkins will make his 23rd career start and 13th of the season.

So far, he’s been super lucky for the Orioles, as he owns a 3.93 ERA but a 5.54 xERA.

Watkins is 3-1 and has allowed one run or less in his last four starts. But on the season, he ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xERA, xBA, xwOBA, K% and Average Exit Velocity.

Since the start of June, the Baltimore offense has climbed to 13th in the league in wOBA and 15th in wRC+. Over the last 30 days, baseball’s number one prospect Adley Rutschman has led the Orioles with a .379 wOBA and 147 wRC+.

Rays-Orioles Pick

The last time the Rays faced Watkins, they tagged him for three runs before he ever recorded an out. Opponents have a .360 xwOBA and 90.6 Average Exit Velocity against Watkins this season. Despite his recent success, if teams keep hammering him like this, it’ll turn ugly again soon.

McClanahan is as good as it gets on the mound right now. He has pitched into the sixth inning and has allowed fewer than two runs in every start since April 30.

Baltimore is playing well, but he’s on a different planet right now.

Back Tampa Bay to be leading after five runs at -150 or better.

Pick: Tampa Bay First Five -0.5 (-135)

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