Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Boston and Tanner Houck (April 10)
Kathryn Riley/Getty Images. Pictured: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds
| Red Sox Odds | +130 |
| Yankees Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-120/+100) |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
The Red Sox look to avoid a sweep at the hands of their bitter rivals on Sunday Night Baseball as Tanner Houck takes on Jordan Montgomery and the Yankees.
Boston has dropped the opening two games of the season, losing in extra innings on Friday and 6-2 on Saturday. It's way too early to panic if you are a Red Sox fan, but a sweep on the opening series of the season to your rival is not the ideal start.
The Yankees' pitching and timely hitting has bolstered them in the first two games of the season. New York's powerful lineup is a brute to deal with, even if they'll have one of the highest K%'s in MLB this year. They'll turn to one of their most reliable starters Jordan Montgomery to try and close out a sweep of the Red Sox on Sunday night.
Red Sox Offense
The Red Sox have gotten off to a hot start to 2022, but this will be their first time facing a lefty. In 2021, Boston was solid against lefties, putting up a .326 wOBA and 102 wRC+, which was top 10 in MLB. Adding Trevor Story should only improve those numbers considering Story had a .405 wOBA with 33 RBIs in only 145 plate appearances against lefties last year.
Montgomery has a five-pitch arsenal and mainly utilizes a changeup/curveball/sinker combination. However, the Red Sox were one of only two teams last season to have positive run values against every single pitch type, so they should have a decent matchup against Montgomery.
Yankees Offense
The Yankees have one of the most powerful and imposing lineups in baseball. However, last season New York finished 13th in MLB with a .311 wOBA and 97 wRC+ against right handed pitching and was 15th in wOBA against righties after the trade deadline.
Houck is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, utilizing that combination on 75.7% of his pitches. The Yankees last year were 15th in MLB against fastballs with a +13.6 run value and struggled versus sliders with a -13.5 run value, per fangraphs. So, it may be a more difficult matchup than expected for the Yankees.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Tanner Houck vs. Jordan Montgomery (2021 Stats via Fangraphs)
Red Sox Starting Pitcher
Tanner Houck, RHP
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Houck had a breakout season in first year in the big leagues. He started out in the bullpen, but Alex Cora quickly realized that the first-round pick back in 2017 needed to be in the starting rotation. Houck put up amazing numbers for a rookie with a xERA at 3.20 and a K/9 rate over 11.
The main reason for that success is his slider, which was almost unhittable last year. Opponents only had a .143 Expected Batting Average against it and produced an insane 42.7% Whiff Rate.
Tanner Houck, Wicked Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/lfXFQx1YfM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 25, 2022
If he sticks to his fastball/slider combination, he should have a pretty good matchup against this Yankees lineup.
Yankees Starting Pitcher
Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Jordan Montgomery has been solid this season, posting a 4.06 xERA and 3.93 xFIP.
He does a fantastic job mixing his pitches, as he has four different pitches that he utilizes over 13% of the time. His top two pitches, changeup and curveball, have been really effective, allowing a wOBA under .290 and a Whiff Rate over 37%. However, he may not want to utilize his changeup very often because the Red Sox had a +37.4 run value against them last season.
Over his career, Montgomery's had issues keeping the ball inside the yard, but since last season, he's made great improvements. His HR/9 went down to 1.09 after his HR/9 rate sat at 1.44 in 2020.
However, this is not a great matchup for him with the Red Sox being a top-10 offense against lefties and having a positive run value against all of Montgomery's pitches.
Bullpen Matchup
The Yankees have the advantage in the bullpen matchup. New York was a top-10 bullpen in baseball in 2022 in terms of xFIP, ERA, and LOB%, while Boston was 13th in xFIP and 24th in BB/9 rate.
Red Sox-Yankees Pick
Tanner Houck has a much better matchup against the Yankees lineup than Jordan Montgomery does against the Red Sox. I have Houck and the Red Sox projected at +111 for the first five innings, so I like the value on the current line of +135 (DraftKings).
Pick: Red Sox First Five Innings (+135)
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