Reds-Cubs Betting Preview: Can Kyle Hendricks Shutdown Cincinnati in the First Five Innings?

Reds-Cubs Betting Preview: Can Kyle Hendricks Shutdown Cincinnati in the First Five Innings? article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kyle Hendricks

Betting odds: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs

  • Reds moneyline: +130
  • Cubs moneyline: -140
  • Over/Under: 10
  • First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of Monday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets


Kyle Hendricks was drafted in the eighth round of the 2011 amateur draft by the Texas Rangers. In 2012, he was traded to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster.

In Hendrick’s six seasons with the Cubs, he has 59 total wins, which ranks third on the team behind just Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta.

When it comes to the betting markets, Hendricks has had a ton of success early in games, specifically in the first five innings.

Since Hendricks’ first start for Chicago back in 2014, his 3.17 ERA in the first six innings of a game ranks 11th overall, among the 127 starting pitchers to have thrown at least 500 innings.

That has translated quite well for bettors who have backed Hendricks in the first five: The righty is 80-51-27 (61.1%) on the F5 moneyline, winning by almost a full run per outing.

Where Hendricks has done most of that damage is at home.

The Cubs are 47-19-13 (71.2%) in the first five innings at Wrigley when Hendricks starts, beating their opponents by 1.6 runs per outing.

During the 2019 season, Chicago is 6-1 on the F5 moneyline in Hendricks’ home starts, winning six straight games after a loss in his first home start back in April.

On Monday night, Hendricks and the Cubs face off against their division foe, the Cincinnati Reds, who are 42-48 this season, but just 4.5 games out of a NL Wild Card spot.

Kyle-Hendricks-Cubs
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs. Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Entering Monday night, Hendricks has faced a team below .500 on 32 different occasions.

The Cubs are 21-11 (65.6%) on the full-game moneyline and 21-4-7 (84%) on the first five innings moneyline (winning by more than 2 runs per game) when Hendricks pitches at home in this spot.

Where Hendricks has had the most success in the first five innings at home is against NL Central opponents. He is 22-8-4 (73.3%) against NL Central teams at Wrigley Field on the F5 moneyline in his career, owning the Reds and Cardinals, in particular.

As is the case with the majority of starting pitchers, Hendricks’ ERA is almost a full run higher when he pitches after the fifth inning than in the first five innings of the game.

Hendricks owns a 2.98 ERA in innings 1-5, while he has a 3.73 ERA in his 161.2 IP in innings 6-9 throughout his career. The trouble inning early on for Hendricks has been the 1st, where he owns a 4.62 ERA, followed by a 2.55 ERA in innings 2-5.

On Monday night against the Reds, Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs are priced at -140 to win the first five innings.