The Cubs are favored by -210 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +171 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 11.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
Reds vs Cubs Prediction
- Reds vs Cubs Pick: Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 Strikeouts
My Reds vs Cubs best bet is on Edward Cabrera to go over his strikeouts total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Cubs Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 11.5 -100o / -120u | +171 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 11.5 -100o / -120u | -210 |
- Reds vs Cubs moneyline: Reds +171, Cubs -210
- Reds vs Cubs over/under: 11.5 (-100o / -120u)
- Reds vs Cubs spread: Cubs -1.5 (-115 ), Reds +1.5 (-105)
Reds vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| RHP Chase Petty (CIN) | Stat | RHP Edward Cabrera (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| Season Debut | W-L | 3-0 |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| — | ERA / xERA | 3.06/3.78 |
| — | FIP / xFIP | 3.71/4.05 |
| — | K-BB% | 11.8% |
| — | GB% | 41.4% |
| — | BABIP | .273 |
| — | Stuff+ | 95 |
| — | Location+ | 105 |
Reds vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
The Reds enter Chicago in a difficult spot, having lost three straight games and getting swept by the Pirates. Their lineup has struggled for consistency, striking out at a 24.7% rate (28th in MLB). This high-variance offense now faces a dominant power arm in Edward Cabrera.
On the mound, the Reds are turning to prospect Chase Petty, who is making his season debut after being called up to replace the injured Brandon Williamson. Petty has shown promise in Triple-A (4.38 ERA), but he faces a daunting task against a Cubs lineup that has been lethal during their current five-game winning streak.
The North Siders are the hottest team in baseball, boasting a 22-12 record and a perfect 10-game home winning streak. They send Edward Cabrera (3-0, 3.06 ERA) to the hill, who has been stellar since joining the club.
Cabrera has recorded 29 strikeouts in 35.1 innings this season and is coming off a dominant performance against San Diego, where he notched seven punchouts. Offensively, the Cubs have been fueled by Ian Happ and Carson Kelly, and they benefit from favorable conditions at Wrigley today, with temperatures reaching a high of 27°C and winds blowing out toward center field at 16 mph.
Reds vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
The Reds strike out at an obscene amount, so there are a few good K-Props, but Cabrera is the one that stands out.
Cincinnati has actually had a good start to the season, but it's the only team in the NL Central — which has all five teams above .500 — with a negative run differential, and they're coming off a sweep by the Pirates.
It's been slow going for Cabrera this season in the strikeout department. He's always been a pitcher with great swing and miss stuff, but also a propensity to walk quite a few, and rack up those pitch counts quickly. Because of that, he hasn't been able to pitch deep into games.
He only cleared this number for the first time this season in his last start. He struck out seven against the Padres his last time out, and in each of his first five starts, he landed on either four or five strikeouts.
Overall, he's only one-for-six in cashing over 5.5 this season, and that's one of the reasons I like it so much. I think the books have downgraded Cabrera a bit, but I don't really see any reason for it other than some small-sample results.
Early in the season, Cabrera's K-Prop was sitting at 6.5. They moved all the way down to 4.5 last time out against the Padres, and he easily cashed out that over. Today, we're getting it at 5.5 against a team that strikes out a ton.
The Reds have the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors so far this year, and alongside the Rockies and Angels, they're probably going to be sitting at or near the top all season long.
This is a good buy-low spot on Cabrera. If he clears this, I think we'll start to see this prop sit around 6.5 more often than not moving forward.
Pick: Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 Strikeouts
