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MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions for Reds vs. Mets: How to Bet This “Risky Matchup” (Wednesday, Aug. 10)

MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions for Reds vs. Mets: How to Bet This “Risky Matchup” (Wednesday, Aug. 10) article feature image
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Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor & Starling Marte (Mets)

  • The red-hot Mets look to continue their second-half surge by pulling off a three-game sweep of the Reds.
  • New York is not without its risks, though, as Taijuan Walker hasn't been sharp and its bullpen has struggled.
  • Nevertheless, MLB betting analyst Jules Posner explains why and how he's backing the Mets.

Reds vs. Mets Odds

Reds Odds +270
Mets Odds -335
Over/Under 9 (-102 / -120)
Time 1:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Mets look to complete the three-game home sweep over the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday, and they seem well positioned to do so.

The gap in the NL East race continues to widen, as the Mets are surging in the second half. Over the past couple of weeks, the Mets have grown their lead to 7.5 games over the Atlanta Braves, and they have an excellent opportunity to pad that lead on Wednesday.

Taijuan Walker will take the mound for the Mets, and he is scheduled to be opposed by T.J. Zeuch for the Reds.

Reds Starting a Mystery Man

Zeuch is a bit of a mystery heading into Wednesday’s matchup.

He’s had a cup of coffee in the bigs each of the last three seasons, but his last stint yielded his worst results. He’s posted decent numbers in Triple-A since being acquired by the Reds’ organization, but taking on the Mets right now is a tough task for anyone.

The Reds’ offense has also plummeted in production since losing Tyler Stephenson and trading away Tommy Pham and Brandon Drury. They are presently 27th in MLB in wRC+ against RHP on the road over the past two weeks.

After Zeuch, the Reds’ bullpen has actually been pretty good over the past couple of weeks. So, if there is any opportunity for them to keep this game close, their pen may have to provide some quality innings.


Why There Are Risks With Mets

As the kids say, the Mets have been balling out of control. They are 8-2 over their last 10 games and everything just seems to be working in their favor.

Offensively, the Mets have the third-best team wRC+ in the league against RHP at home over the past two weeks. They may be at a slight disadvantage taking on an unfamiliar opponent, but they are hitting so well right now, it seems as if they can adjust to anything.

Walker is the real concern for the Mets. Over his past three starts, he’s really labored. He also got shelled for eight runs in one inning of work in his last start against the Braves.

The Reds may seem like a good opportunity for him to get back on track, but his home FIP and xFIP have continually crept up over the past couple of months.

The Mets’ bullpen has also been a little spotty lately, which is another cause for concern. The offense has really covered their deficiencies so far in the second half.

So, while it’s hard to fade the Mets right now, they do come with some risk.

Reds-Mets Pick

This is a very weird matchup because the Mets are on absolute fire, but the numbers are so strongly favoring them that finding good value is difficult.

Obviously laying down the juice for a -300 Mets runline is not necessarily worth the squeeze, but taking them -2.5 at +100 does not seem like that great of a value either.

It’s probably best to split the difference here and take Mets runline at -1.5. If you can find it, play it to -150 or better, but this is a very risky matchup considering Walker’s recent struggles.

Hopefully the Mets’ offense can carry them and Walker gets back on track, but -2.5 does not feel like a great value at just +100.

Take the smaller, but safer payout here.

Pick: Mets RL -1.5 -150

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