Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports. Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland (21).
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants, 10:15 p.m. ET
- Rockies (Kyle Freeland): +128
- Giants (Madison Bumgarner): -142
- Over/Under: 7
Bet to Watch
The rough patch of strikeout props continues, but I’m on a handful today and one on the West Coast is really popping out.
Freeland, who porked us last week at Coors Field by falling one strikeout short of cashing, will be taking on Bumgarner and the Giants. Once again, his over/under is listed at 4.5 (or 5 depending on your book), and once again I’m on the over.
FantasyLabs is projecting Freeland to get nearly seven strikeouts against a Giants lineup that is averaging a hair over four runs per game and a strikeout rate of nearly 24%. His prop of 4.5 (o-102) is more than two strikeouts fewer than FantasyLabs is implying, which is the largest differential of the day.
Something that won’t be going against him this time around is the ballpark. Freeland will get to pitch in the park with the best Weather Rating on tonight’s slate. Sharp action has also hit on the under, as the total has moved from 7.5 to 7 despite about an 80/20 bet split in favor of the over.
Also worth noting is the fact that the Rockies have moved to +135 to +128 despite getting fewer than 40% of bets.
With both Mother Nature and sharp bettors expecting few runs to be scored tonight, I feel more comfortable about Freeland’s chances of going deep in the game and getting more strikeout opportunities.
The pick: Kyle Freeland over 4.5 strikeouts (-102)